Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS BILIS (FLORITA)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #14 **FINAL**

Name: TROPICAL STORM BILIS [FLORITA/05W/0604]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) FRI 14 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #026 (FINAL)
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TROPICAL STORM BILIS (FLORITA) HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER THE
CHINESE PROVINCE OF FUJIAN AROUND NOONTIME TODAY, PASSING
JUST NORTH OF FUZHOU CITY (APPROX 1 PM HK TIME)...DISSIPA-
TION OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...THIS IS THE LAST AND FINAL UPDATE ON THIS DISTURBANCE.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: BILIS is expected to continue tracking
WNW to NW'ly across the mountainous provinces of Fujian &
Jiangxi and dissipate its very large convection. Rapid di-
ssipation is forecast within 24 to 48 hours as the effects
of rugged mountainous terrain & the absence of warm moist
air prevails.

+ EFFECTS: The core & inner bands of this storm is now
over mainland SE China and spreading across the provinces
of Fujian, Jiangxi & Zhejiang. Stormy weather conditions
(Heavy rains with very strong winds) will continue to
prevail along the areas affected by the dissipating core
and inner bands of BILIS tonight until tomorrow. Its wide-
outer bands is now passing over portions of Guangdong
Province and Shanghai as it continues to affect Taiwan,
Yaeyama Islands, the Batanes & Calayan Group of Islands,
Balintang & Bashi Channels & the northernmost sections
of South China Sea. These outer bands are still expected
to bring passing rains with moderate to sometimes strong
winds (most especially along the southern periphery)
reaching 60 km/hr tonight until early tomorrow. Large and
dangerous waves & sea surf can be expected over the ex-
posed beaches of the abovementioned areas. Kindly take
precautionary measures against these hazardous surf &
waves.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The active & strong Southwest
Monsoon has started to weaken but remains under the domain
of TS BILIS. It is stil affecting Western Luzon (including
Metro Manila, Subic Bay and the cities of Dagupan, Laoag,
Vigan, Baguio & Tagaytay). This monsoon system will bring
cloudy skies with occasionally moderate to heavy rains &
moderate to strong SW'ly winds (approx 30 to 60 km/hr).
These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain
slopes of the affected areas. Improving weather conditions
can be expected late tonight or tomorrow Saturday as the
storm dissipates over China.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 14 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 26.7º N...LONGITUDE 118.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 85 KM (45 NM) NW OF FUZHOU CITY, CHINA
DISTANCE 2: 255 KM (138 NM) NNE OF XIAMEN, CHINA
DISTANCE 3: 235 KM (127 NM) SW OF WENZHOU, CHINA
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 991 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: JIANGXI PROVINCE, CHINA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,240 KM (670 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K FINAL TRACKING MAP: 5 PM FRI JULY 14
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 24 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 15 JULY: 27.4N 117.4E / 45-65 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 15 JULY: 28.1N 116.1E / 35-55 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 14 JULY POSITION: 26.4N 119.2E.
^...(more info)

>> BILIS {pronounced: bee~lees}, meaning: Speed;
fleetness. Name contributed by: Philippines.

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PAGASA FINAL POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 14 JULY: 25.9N 118.7E / WEST @ 22 KPH / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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