Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 05W

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #02

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W [UNNAMED]

Issued: 1:00 AM MANILA TIME (17:00 GMT) SUN 09 JULY 2006
Next Update: 1:00 PM (05:00 GMT) SUN 09 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #003
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (UNNAMED) INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE
WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM TODAY.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 05W is expected to continue moving WNW
to NW'ly into the Philippine Sea for the rest of the fore-
cast period (up to July 11). Forecast to enter the Phili-
ppine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Monday morning, July 10
as a strong Tropical Storm (estimated winds of 95 to
120 kph).

+ EFFECTS: Due to its very large circulation (a characte-
ristics closer to a Monsoon Depression type), 05W's Outer
bands continues to cover the entire Mariana and Caroline
Islands. The outer bands is expected to bring passing
rains with gale force winds (most especially along the
southern periphery, which is associated with the surge of
Monsoon winds) reaching 55 km/hr tonight and tomorrow.
Large and dangerous sea surf can be expected over the ex-
posed beaches of the abovementioned Pacific Islands.
Kindly take precautionary measures against these
hazardous surf.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest Monsoon conti-
nues being drawn by 05W...currently affecting the Micro-
nesian Islands of Yap, Ulithi, Palau and among other islets.
This monsoon system will bring cloudy skies with moderate to
sometimes strong SW'ly winds (approx. 30 to 60 km/hr), accom-
panied with moderate to heavy occasional rains. These rains
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides along
river banks, low-lying areas and mountain slopes of the
affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 11:00 PM MANILA TIME (15:00 GMT) 08 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 12.4º N...LONGITUDE 140.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 510 KM (275 NM) WSW OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 2: 395 KM (215 NM) NE OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.2 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): ... KM (... NM)/UNDETERMINED
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 11 PM SAT JULY 08
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 8 AM (00 GMT) 09 JULY: 13.1N 139.2E / 65-85 KPH
> 8 PM (12 GMT) 09 JULY: 14.3N 137.5E / 85-100 KPH

REMARKS: 8 PM (12 GMT) 08 JULY POSITION: 12.2N 140.6E.
^TD 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING ANTICYCLONE LOCATED
TO THE NORTHEAST THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AT (OR LESS THAN) A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONTI-
NUES TO CONSOLIDATE. MOREOVER, STORM OUTFLOW WILL BE
HINDERED AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) REMAINS...(more info)

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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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