Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon EWINIAR (ESTER)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #18

Name: TYPHOON EWINIAR [ESTER/04W/0603]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SAT 08 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) SUN 09 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #035
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TYPHOON EWINIAR (ESTER) PICKS UP SPEED AS IT STARTS HEA-
DING NORTHWARD...NOW PASSING CLOSE TO YAEYAMA ISLAND CHAIN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: EWINIAR is expected to move North to
NNW'ly for the next 24 to 48 hours then shall begin recur-
ving NNE'ly over the East China Sea. Its core (Eye+EyeWall)
is expected to pass to the west of Ryukyu Islands or about
200 km West of Okinawa, Japan around midnight (July 9).
Long range Forecast (July 10-11) shows the system weakening
into a strong Tropical Storm before making landfall over
North Korea by Tuesday morning (July 11).

+ EFFECTS: EWINIAR's circulation continues to spread across
the tiny Pacific Island chain of Yaeyama & Okinawa. Its Ou-
ter and Inner Rain Bands is forecast to affect the islands
tonight until tomorrow. The storm's outer/inner bands is
expected to bring moderate to heavy rains with damaging
winds that could produce flying debris, life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides along river banks, low-lying
areas and mountain slopes over the affected island. Resi-
dents residing along the coastal beachfront areas of Yae-
yama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands are advised to seek higher
grounds due to possible high waves from the sea. Coastal
Storm Surge flooding from 6 to 8 feet can be expected along
the path of this approaching typhoon, thereby advising all
sea vessels to remain at port and avoid passing over it.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest Monsoon remains
strong as it continues to be enhanced by EWINIAR...current-
ly affecting Metro Manila, Luzon including Calayan and
Batanes Group, Bicol Region, Quezon & Western Visayas.
This monsoon system will bring cloudy skies with moderate
to sometimes strong SW'ly winds (approx. 30 to 60 km/hr),
accompanied with moderate to heavy occasional rains. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud-
slides along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain
slopes of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 08 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 24.7º N...LONGITUDE 126.1º E
DISTANCE 1: 630 KM (340 NM) NE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 275 KM (150 NM) SW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 3: 455 KM (245 NM) EAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 160 KM/HR (85 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 958 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 28 FEET (8.5 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TW0 (2)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: YAEYAMA-OKINAWA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 815 KM (440 NM)/LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM SAT JULY 08
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - CALAYAN & BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 09 JULY: 26.4N 125.7E / 150-185 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 09 JULY: 28.8N 125.0E / 140-165 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 08 JULY POSITION: 24.2N 126.3E.
^TY EWINIAR CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING ANTICYCLONE LOCATED
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE EAST CHINA SEA IS FORECAST TO
ENHANCE THE STEERING ANTICYCLONE, CAUSING TY EWINIAR TO
TRACK POLEWARD (NORTHWARD) THROUGH 36 HOURS. TY EWINIAR
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 36
HOURS AS THE STEERING RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY AN APPROA-
CHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. TY
EWINIAR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
BY 48 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES...(more info)

>> EWINIAR {pronounced: ee~win~yar}, meaning: Chuuk
traditional storm God. Name contributed by: Micronesia.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 08 JULY: 24.5N 126.1E / NNW @ 19 KPH / 150 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)_______________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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