Bushman's Typhoon Blog: EWINIAR (ESTER) almost a Super Typhoon... [Update #11]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #11

Name: TYPHOON EWINIAR [ESTER/04W/0603]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 05 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) WED 05 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #021
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POWERFUL TYPHOON EWINIAR (ESTER) GAINED MORE STRENGTH
TO NEAR SUPER TYPHOON WITH WINDS OF 230 KM/HR...STILL
AIMING DANGEROUSLY TOWARDS OKINAWA-RYUKYU AREA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: EWINIAR is expected to continue
tracking NW'ly across the Northern Philippine Sea for
the next 24 to 36 hours. The 2 to 5-Day Advance Forecast
(July 6-10) still shows the system turning Northerly,
then recurving NE'ly - passing about 185 km east of Oki-
nawa, Japan around 4 AM Saturday, July 8 and shall make
landfall over Southern Kyushu near Kagoshima City around
4 to 5 AM Sunday, July 9.

+ EFFECTS: EWINIAR is not yet affecting any land or is-
lands at this moment. However, the outer (feeder) bands
is forecast to reach Okinawa-Ryukyu Area sometime tomo-
rrow or Friday (July 6 or 7). The storm's outer bands are
characterize with passing moderate to heavy rains with
moderate to sometimes strong winds that could produce
flying debris, life-threatening flash floods and mud-
slides along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain
slopes over the affected island.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: None yet... However, this
powerful typhoon is expected to enhance & strengthen the
Southwest (SW) Monsoon across the Philippines especially
the western sections beginning Thursday until the weekend
(July 06-09). This monsoon system will bring cloudy skies
with winds of approx. 30 to 60 km/hr, accompanied with
light, moderate to heavy rains. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides along river
banks, low-lying areas and mountain slopes of the affected
areas.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Tropical Disturbance (LPA/
97W/1004 mb) over Central Caroline Islands has accelerated
WNW over the past 12 hours. The disturbance was located
approximately 875 km SSE of Hagatna, Guam (6.3N 148.3E).
This disturbance is expected to become a significant Tro-
pical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. Stay tuned
for more updates on this developing system.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 05 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 17.5º N...LONGITUDE 131.2º E {SatFix}
DISTANCE 1: 1,010 KM (545 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 2: 1,020 KM (550 NM) ESE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,055 KM (570 NM) SSE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 230 KM/HR (125 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 280 KM/HR (150 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 916 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 39 FEET (11.8 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: OKINAWA-RYUKYU AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 925 KM (500 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM WED JULY 05
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 05 JULY: 18.6N 130.5E / 230-280 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 06 JULY: 19.7N 129.7E / 215-260 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 05 JULY POSITION: 17.4N 131.6E.
^TY EWINIAR NOW REVEALS A 35-KM ROUND EYE. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTRO-
PICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (STHPR) CENTERED SOUTHEAST
OF JAPAN. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HRS. HOWEVER, A MORE POLEWARD
TRACK IS FORECAST THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS AND AS MIDLATITUDE TROUGHING
OVER EASTERN ASIA ERODES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
STHPR...(more info)

>> EWINIAR {pronounced: ee~win~yar}, meaning: Chuuk
traditional storm God. Name contributed by: Micronesia.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 05 JULY: 17.4N 131.6E / NW @ 17 KPH / 165 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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