Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS BILIS (FLORITA) now aims for Batanes-Taiwan... [Update #07]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #07

Name: TROPICAL STORM BILIS [FLORITA/05W/0604]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 11 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 11 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #012
_______________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL STORM BILIS (FLORITA) SLOWS ITS WEST-NORTHWEST
MOVEMENT DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS & INCREASED ITS
STRENGTH TO 95 KM/HR...NOW THREATENS NORTHERN LUZON
& TAIWAN WITH ITS VERY LARGE CIRCULATION (NEARLY 1,100
KM ACROSS WITH 45-KM/HR SURFACE WINDS EXTENDING NEARLY
550 KM FROM THE CENTER
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: New changes in its forecast track has
been initiated. BILIS is now expected to track WNW across
the Philippine Sea for the next 2 days (48 hrs) and shall
reach Typhoon strength tomorrow Wednesday afternoon. The 3
to 5 day-Long range forecast (July 14-16) shows the system
making landfall over Southern Taiwan as a Category 1
Typhoon (approx 140 km/hr), passing very close to the
north of Kaohsiung City Friday morning (around 8 AM local
time, July 14)...it shall then move out into Taiwan Strait
Saturday early morning as a downgraded but still strong
Tropical Storm (110 km/hr). Its 2nd landfall shall occur
before midnight of July 16th (Sunday) over Fujian Pro-
vince, China near the City of Xiamen.

+ EFFECTS: Due to its large circulation, BILIS' outer
bands continues to cover the entire half of the Phili-
ppine Sea and is now approaching Bicol Region & Eastern
Luzon. The outer bands is expected to bring passing rains
with moderate to sometimes strong winds (most especially
along the southern periphery, which is associated with
the surge of Monsoon winds) reaching 45 km/hr today.
Large and dangerous sea surf & waves can be expected
over the exposed beaches of the abovementioned areas.
Kindly take precautionary measures against these hazar-
dous surf & waves.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest Monsoon conti-
nues to be enhanced by BILIS, affecting the whole Phili-
ppine Islands (except for Palawan Island), becoming more
frequent along Visayas & Northern Mindanao. This monsoon
system will bring cloudy skies with moderate to sometimes
strong SW'ly winds (approx 30 to 60 km/hr), accompanied
with occasional moderate to heavy rains. These rains may
produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides along
river banks, low-lying areas and mountain slopes of the
affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 11 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 17.7º N...LONGITUDE 129.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 850 KM (460 NM) NE OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 2: 870 KM (470 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 3: 885 KM (480 NM) ESE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 987 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 19 FEET (5.7 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES-TAIWAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,110 KM (600 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM TUE JULY 11
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 11 JULY: 18.4N 128.6E / 100-130 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 12 JULY: 19.3N 127.0E / 110-140 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 11 JULY POSITION: 17.5N 130.3E.
^A DEEP SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
OF TS BILIS REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, AND
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A TRACK TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DUE TO THE COMPENSATING STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
STORM...(more info)

>> BILIS {pronounced: bee~lees}, meaning: Speed;
fleetness. Name contributed by: Philippines.

_________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 11 JULY: 17.3N 130.3E / NW @ 17 KPH / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | OFFLINE (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on the TS BILIS (FLORITA/05W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm