Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS BILIS (FLORITA)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #08

Name: TROPICAL STORM BILIS [FLORITA/05W/0604]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) TUE 11 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) WED 12 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #014
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TROPICAL STORM BILIS (FLORITA) HAS LOST A LITTLE BIT OF
STRENGTH AS IT TRACKED NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS
...HEADS FOR NORTHERN TAIWAN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: BILIS is expected to continue moving
NW'ly across the Philippine Sea for the next 2 days (48
hrs) and shall re-intensify reaching Typhoon strength
early Thursday morning (July 13). The 3 to 5 day-Long
range forecast (July 14-16) shows the system sideweeping
Northern Taiwan as a Category 1 Typhoon (approx 130 km/hr)
& passing some 65 km NE of Taipei around 5 PM local time
Friday (July 14)...it shall then make landfall over Zhe-
jiang Province, China or very near the City of Wenzhou
around 5 PM Saturday (July 15th) as a downgraded Tropical
Storm.

+ EFFECTS: BILIS' wide outer bands continues to spread
across the entire half of the Philippine Sea and along
the Eastern Seaboard of Luzon (from Cagayan down to Nor-
thern Bicol Region. The outer bands is expected to bring
passing rains with moderate to sometimes strong winds
(most especially along the southern periphery, which is
associated with the surge of Monsoon winds) reaching 45
km/hr tonight. Large and dangerous sea surf & waves can
be expected over the exposed beaches of the abovemen-
tioned areas. Kindly take precautionary measures against
these hazardous surf & waves.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest Monsoon conti-
nues to be enhanced by BILIS...affecting Luzon & Visayas,
becoming more frequent along the Western sections. This
monsoon system will bring cloudy skies with moderate to
sometimes strong SW'ly winds (approx 30 to 60 km/hr),
accompanied with occasional moderate to heavy rains. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud-
slides along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain
slopes of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 11 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 19.1º N...LONGITUDE 128.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 835 KM (450 NM) NE OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 2: 720 KM (390 NM) ENE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 3: 695 KM (375 NM) ESE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 991 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 18 FEET (5.4 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,110 KM (600 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM TUE JULY 11
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 12 JULY: 20.0N 127.5E / 100-130 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 12 JULY: 21.1N 126.2E / 110-140 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 11 JULY POSITION: 18.8N 128.8E.
^THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE FOR TS BILIS REMAINS
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (STHPR) TO THE
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE PERIPHERAL RIDGING TO THE
SOUTHEAST HAS CONTINUED TO ENHANCE ALONG WITH AN EX-
TENSION OF THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST OF TS BILIS. THE
COMPENSATING STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE TWO HAS CAUSED
TS BILIS TO SLOW AS IT TRACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
...(more info)

>> BILIS {pronounced: bee~lees}, meaning: Speed;
fleetness. Name contributed by: Philippines.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 11 JULY: 19.0N 128.7E / NW @ 15 KPH / 95 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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