Bushman's Typhoon Blog: BILIS (FLORITA) stalls north of Batanes... [Update #11]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #11

Name: TROPICAL STORM BILIS [FLORITA/05W/0604]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 13 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) THU 13 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #020
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TROPICAL STORM BILIS (FLORITA) HAS DRAMATICALLY SLOWED
DOWN DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS THEREBY EXTENDING THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST (SW) MONSOON ACROSS LUZON & VISAYAS
...TAIWAN LANDFALL POSSIBLE IN 24 HOURS
. PAGASA MANILA
STILL CONSIDER THIS SYSTEM AS A 120-KM/HR TYPHOON.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: BILIS has stalled temporarily due
to the interaction with a passing mid-latitude low pre-
ssure north of the storm, but will resume moving WNW
and make landfall over Taiwan or near Hualien City to-
morrow early morning, July 14 (around 12-1 AM local
time) passing about 100 km SSW of Taipei around 4 AM.
The storm is forecast to cross the mountainous terrain
of Taiwan and shall move out into Taiwan Strait and make
its 2nd landfall along Fujian Province, China Friday
afternoon (July 14) around 4-5 PM local time.

+ EFFECTS: BILIS' wide outer bands still spreading across
the entire half of the Philippine Sea and Northern Luzon.
The outer bands are expected to bring passing rains with
moderate to sometimes strong winds (most especially along
the southern periphery) reaching 60 km/hr today. Large and
dangerous sea surf & waves can be expected over the ex-
posed beaches of the abovementioned areas. Kindly take
precautionary measures against these hazardous surf
& waves.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The active & strong Southwest
Monsoon continues to be strengthened by BILIS affecting
Northern and Central Philippines, becoming more intense
along the Western sections of Luzon & Visayas (including
Metro Manila, Subic Bay and the cities of Dagupan, Baguio
& Tagaytay). This monsoon system will bring cloudy skies
with occasionally moderate to heavy rains & moderate to
strong SW'ly winds (approx 30 to 60 km/hr). These rains
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain slopes
of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 13 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 22.5º N...LONGITUDE 123.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 295 KM (160 NM) NE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 365 KM (197 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 3: 290 KM (157 NM) SE OF HUALIEN, TAIWAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 994 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,250 KM (675 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM THU JULY 13
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 13 JULY: 23.2N 122.9E / 75-95 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 JULY: 24.2N 121.3E / 65-85 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 13 JULY POSITION: 22.2N 124.2E.
^TS BILIS CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (STHPR)
ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN. THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL NEAR HAULIEN,
TAIWAN AROUND 24 HOURS. INTERACION BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
TAIWAN IS FORECAST TO INDUCE A SHIFT IN TRACK AS THE
STORM PASSES OVER THE ISLAND. THE STORM WILL REEMERGE
OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND RESUME A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN CHINA AFTER CROSSING
TAIWAN...(more info)

>> BILIS {pronounced: bee~lees}, meaning: Speed;
fleetness. Name contributed by: Philippines.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 13 JULY: 22.3N 124.0E / NW @ 15 KPH / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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