Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon EWINIAR (ESTER)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #20

Name: TYPHOON EWINIAR [ESTER/04W/0603]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SUN 09 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) MON 10 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #039
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TYPHOON EWINIAR (ESTER) CONTINUES TO LOSE STRENGTH AS IT
RAPIDLY ACCELERATES NORTHWARD...ENDANGERS THE PARADISE
KOREAN ISLAND OF CHEJU.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: EWINIAR is expected to be downgraded to
a Tropical Storm and continue moving rapidly to the North
passing very close to Cheju Island early tomorrow morning
Monday (around 5 AM HK time, July 10). 48-hour Forecast
shows the system weakening and becoming an Extratropical
System (Mid-latitude Cyclone) as it makes landfall over
North Korea Monday evening (approx 10 PM HK Time, July 10).

+ EFFECTS: EWINIAR's outer and inner rain bands are now
approaching Cheju Island, Kyushu and South Korea. The core
(where the eye and the eyewall are located) is forecast to
reach Cheju Island early tomorrow morning. The storm's core
is expected to bring moderate to heavy rains with very
strong & damaging winds that could produce flying debris,
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides along river
banks, low-lying areas and mountain slopes over the
affected island. Residents residing along the coastal
beachfront areas of Cheju Island, Korea, Eastern China &
Kyushu, Japan are advised to seek higher grounds due to
possible high waves from the sea. Coastal Storm Surge
flooding from 4 to 5 feet can be expected along the path
of this typhoon, thereby advising all sea vessels to
remain at port and avoid passing over it.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest Monsoon is cu-
rrently receding as EWINIAR moves farther away, but still
affecting Taiwan and the islands of Ryukyu (including Oki-
nawa). This monsoon system will bring cloudy skies with mod-
erate to sometimes strong SW'ly winds (approx. 30 to 40
km/hr), accompanied with moderate to heavy occasional
rains. These rains may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides along river banks, low-lying areas
and mountain slopes of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 09 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 30.0º N...LONGITUDE 125.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 395 KM (215 NM) SSW OF CHEJU ISLAND, S. KOREA
DISTANCE 2: 440 KM (236 NM) ESE OF SHANGHAI, CHINA
DISTANCE 3: 840 KM (455 NM) SSW OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 976 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 16 FEET (4.8 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 30 KM/HR (16 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTH KOREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 775 KM (420 NM)/LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM SUN JULY 09
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 10 JULY: 32.5N 125.8E / 100-130 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 10 JULY: 35.7N 125.7E / 85-100 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 09 JULY POSITION: 29.2N 125.8E.
^THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEEP LAYER STEERING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EAST OF THE STORM HAS BECOME ORIENTED
SOUTH TO NORTH, AND TY EWINIAR WILL ACCELERATE WHILE
TRACKING POLEWARD (NORTHWARD) AS THE STEERING FLOW
INCREASES. THIS NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CON-
TINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MERIDIONAL FLOW
IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST
AND A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA.
TY EWINIAR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSI-
TION BY 36 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATI-
TUDE FLOW...(more info)

>> EWINIAR {pronounced: ee~win~yar}, meaning: Chuuk
traditional storm God. Name contributed by: Micronesia.
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)_______________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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