Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon EWINIAR (ESTER)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #12

Name: TYPHOON EWINIAR [ESTER/04W/0603]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) WED 05 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) THU 06 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #023
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EWINIAR (ESTER) WEAKENS AFTER REACHING SUPER TYPHOON
STRENGTH SIX HOURS AGO AS MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WINDS (WIND SHEAR) DISRUPTS ITS CIRCULATION...
REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR SYSTEM...MOVING
WESTERLY DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: EWINIAR is expected to continue
tracking NW'ly across the Northern Philippine Sea for the
next 24 hours then shall begin to turn northward. Its Eye/
Center is expected to pass very close to Okinawa Is.,
Japan around 2 PM local Saturday, July 8 (approximately 80
km East of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa). The 3 to 5-Day
Advance Forecast (July 8-10) shows the system making
landfall over Southern Kyushu near Kagoshima City around 7
to 8 PM Sunday, July 9 as a downgraded Category 1 Typhoon.

+ EFFECTS: EWINIAR's large circulation is still well over
the Northern Philippine Sea. however, its Northern Outer
(Feeder) Bands is forecast to reach Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
sometime late tomorrow or Friday (July 6 or 7). The storm's
outer bands are characterize with passing moderate to heavy
rains with moderate to sometimes strong winds that could
produce flying debris, life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain
slopes over the affected island.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: As of now, the Southwest Mon-
soon remains weak, bringing only mostly cloudy skies from
Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Bicol Region, down to Visayas,
and Mindanao. Further strengthening of the monsoon may occur
beginning late tomorrow until the weekend (July 06-09) as
the Typhoon approaches Okinawa. This monsoon system once
strengthened - will bring cloudy skies with winds of approx.
30 to 60 km/hr, accompanied with moderate to heavy rains.
These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain
slopes of the affected areas.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Tropical Disturbance (LPA/98W/
1006 mb) over the Caroline Islands continues to struggle as
moderate to strong upper level winds (Vertical Wind Shear)
continues to blow above the disturbance. The possibility of
becoming a well-develop Tropical Cyclone is still likely
within the next 24 to 48 hours. The disturbance was located
approximately 645 km SSE of Hagatna, Guam (8.0N 147.0E).
Stay tuned for more updates on this developing system.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 05 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 18.2º N...LONGITUDE 129.7º E {SatFix}
DISTANCE 1: 845 KM (455 NM) EAST OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 2: 855 KM (462 NM) ESE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 3: 940 KM (508 NM) SSE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 230 KM/HR (125 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 280 KM/HR (150 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 916 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 41 FEET (12.4 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: OKINAWA-RYUKYU AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 925 KM (500 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM WED JULY 05
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 06 JULY: 19.0N 129.1E / 215-260 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 06 JULY: 20.0N 128.4E / 205-250 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 05 JULY POSITION: 18.2N 130.1E.
^THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (STHPR)
THROUGH 48 HRS. HOWEVER, A MORE POLEWARD TRACK IS THEN
FORECAST AS MIDLATITUDE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN ASIA
ERODES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STHPR, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO CREST THE AXIS BY 72 HRS...(more info)

>> EWINIAR {pronounced: ee~win~yar}, meaning: Chuuk
traditional storm God. Name contributed by: Micronesia.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 PM (06 GMT) 05 JULY: 18.2N 130.1E / NW @ 11 KPH / 175 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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