Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Tropical Storm BILIS (FLORITA) heads for Taiwan... [Update #05]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #05

Name: TROPICAL STORM BILIS [FLORITA/05W/0604]

Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) MON 10 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) MON 10 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #009
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TROPICAL STORM BILIS (05W) CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE ACROSS
THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND IS NOW WITHIN THE PHILIPPINE AREA

OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR)...NOW LOCALLY NAMED AS "FLORITA".
STORM'S CIRCULATION NOW MEASURING 1,110 KM. ACROSS.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: BILIS is expected to continue tracking
WNW to NW'ly across the Philippine Sea for the next 3 days
and slightly intensify. Long range forecast (4 to 5 days)
shows the system turning NW'ly as it pass off the Northern
Coast of Taiwan - Friday evening (approx 8 PM local time,
July 14).

+ EFFECTS: Due to its large circulation, BILIS' outer bands
continues to cover the entire half of the Philippine Sea,
Marianas & the Caroline Islands. The outer bands is expected
to bring passing rains with gale force winds (most especially
along the southern periphery, which is associated with the
surge of Monsoon winds) reaching 55 km/hr today. Large and
dangerous sea surf can be expected over the exposed beaches
of the abovementioned areas. Kindly take precautionary mea-
sures against these hazardous surf.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest Monsoon continues
to be enhanced by BILIS, affecting the whole Philippine Is-
lands (particularly the western sections), the Micronesian
Islands of Yap, Ulithi, Palau and among other islets. This
monsoon system will bring cloudy skies with moderate to
sometimes strong SW'ly winds (approx 30 to 60 km/hr), accom-
panied with moderate to heavy occasional rains. These rains
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides along
river banks, low-lying areas and mountain slopes of the
affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 10 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 16.1º N...LONGITUDE 133.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 1,005 KM (542 NM) ENE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 1,195 KM (645 NM) EAST OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,300 KM (702 NM) ESE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 997 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 13 FEET (3.9 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,110 KM (600 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 11 AM MON JULY 10
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 8 PM (12 GMT) 10 JULY: 17.1N 131.9E / 75-95 KPH
> 8 AM (00 GMT) 11 JULY: 18.4N 130.2E / 75-95 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 10 JULY POSITION: 15.7N 133.8E.
^TS BILIS IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW BETWEEN 48
& 72 HOURS DUE TO THE COMPENSATING STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
STORM...(more info)

>> BILIS {pronounced: bee~lees}, meaning: Speed;
fleetness. Name contributed by: Philippines.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 10 JULY: 15.7N 133.7E / WNW @ 19 KPH / 75 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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