Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 05W

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #03

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W [UNNAMED]

Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) SUN 09 JULY 2006
Next Update: 1:00 AM (17:00 GMT) MON 10 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #005
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (UNNAMED) STILL CONSOLIDATING OVER
THE WESTERN PACIFIC AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST...APPROA-
CHING THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 05W is expected to turn more NW'ly into
the Philippine Sea for the next 3 days. Forecast to enter
the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow mor-
ning, July 10 as a strong Tropical Storm (estimated winds
of 85 to 100 kph).

+ EFFECTS: Due to its large circulation, 05W's Outer bands
continues to cover the entire Mariana and Caroline Islands.
The outer bands is expected to bring passing rains with gale
force winds (most especially along the southern periphery,
which is associated with the surge of Monsoon winds) rea-
ching 55 km/hr today. Large and dangerous sea surf can be
expected over the exposed beaches of the abovementioned
Pacific Islands. Kindly take precautionary measures against
these hazardous surf.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest Monsoon conti-
nues being drawn by 05W...currently affecting the Micro-
nesian Islands of Yap, Ulithi, Palau and among other islets.
This monsoon system will bring cloudy skies with moderate to
sometimes strong SW'ly winds (approx. 30 to 60 km/hr), accom-
panied with moderate to heavy occasional rains. These rains
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides along
river banks, low-lying areas and mountain slopes of the
affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 09 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.1º N...LONGITUDE 137.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 405 KM (219 NM) NNW OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM
DISTANCE 2: 780 KM (420 NM) WEST OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 3: 1,440 KM (777 NM) EAST OF BICOL REGION, PH

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.2 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): ... KM (... NM)/UNDETERMINED
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 11 AM SUN JULY 09
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 8 PM (12 GMT) 09 JULY: 13.8N 136.3E / 65-85 KPH
> 8 AM (00 GMT) 10 JULY: 15.4N 134.9E / 85-100 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 09 JULY POSITION: 12.8N 138.1E.
^LATEST QUIKSCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATES THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED BETWEEN 55 AND 165 KM FROM
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SUPPRESSION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROXIMATELY 555 KM WEST OF
GUAM. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING ANTICYCLONE LOCA-
TED TO THE NORTH. THIS STEERING ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO RECEDE EASTWARD WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...(more info)

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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on the TD 05W (UNNAMED)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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