Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Tropical Storm BILIS (05W)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #04

Name: TROPICAL STORM BILIS [05W/0604]

Issued: 1:00 AM MANILA TIME (17:00 GMT) MON 10 JULY 2006
Next Update: 1:00 PM (05:00 GMT) MON 10 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #007
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05W (UNNAMED) STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BILIS...
ACCELERATING WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA...
TO ENTER THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR)
MONDAY.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 05W is expected to turn more NW'ly into
the Philippine Sea for the next 3 days. Forecast to enter
the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early tomo-
rrow morning, July 10.

+ EFFECTS: Due to its large circulation, 05W's Outer bands
continues to cover the entire Mariana and Caroline Islands.
The outer bands is expected to bring passing rains with gale
force winds (most especially along the southern periphery,
which is associated with the surge of Monsoon winds) rea-
ching 55 km/hr today. Large and dangerous sea surf can be
expected over the exposed beaches of the abovementioned
Pacific Islands. Kindly take precautionary measures against
these hazardous surf.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest Monsoon conti-
nues being drawn by 05W...currently affecting the Micro-
nesian Islands of Yap, Ulithi, Palau and among other islets.
This monsoon system will bring cloudy skies with moderate to
sometimes strong SW'ly winds (approx. 30 to 60 km/hr), accom-
panied with moderate to heavy occasional rains. These rains
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides along
river banks, low-lying areas and mountain slopes of the
affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 11:00 PM MANILA TIME (15:00 GMT) 09 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.2º N...LONGITUDE 135.0º E
DISTANCE 1: 630 KM (340 NM) NW OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM
DISTANCE 2: 1,060 KM (570 NM) WNW OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 3: 1,165 KM (630 NM) EAST OF BICOL REGION, PH

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 997 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 11 FEET (3.3 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 24 KM/HR (13 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,110 KM (600 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 11 PM SUN JULY 09
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 8 AM (00 GMT) 10 JULY: 15.4N 133.7E / 75-95 KPH
> 8 PM (12 GMT) 10 JULY: 16.8N 132.0E / 85-100 KPH

REMARKS: 8 PM (12 GMT) 09 JULY POSITION: 13.8N 135.5E.
^SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND A 5 PM JULY 09 QUIKSCAT
SATELLITE PASS INDICATE THAT THE STORM CIRCULATION IS
APPROXIMATELY 600 NM ACROSS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRA-
RED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION HAS YET TO
FULLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THIS LARGE TROPICAL CIRCULATION.
TS BILIS IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCE OF A PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW BET-
WEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS DUE TO THE COMPENSATING STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE AND A BUILDING
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM...(more info)

>> BILIS {pronounced: bee~lees}, meaning: Speed;
fleetness. Name contributed by: Philippines.

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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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