Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS BILIS (FLORITA) nears Taiwan...slows down... [Update #10]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #10

Name: TROPICAL STORM BILIS [FLORITA/05W/0604]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) WED 12 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) THU 13 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #018
_______________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL STORM BILIS (FLORITA) REMAINS A VERY LARGE SYS-
TEM AS IT SLOWED DOWN WEAKENED...APPROACHING TAIWAN
.
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST (SW) MONSOON CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE
WHOLE LUZON AND VISAYAS BECOMING MORE INTENSE ALONG THE
WESTERN SECTIONS INCLUDING METRO MANILA, DAGUPAN AND
BAGUIO CITIES. MEANWHILE, PAGASA WEATHER AGENCY HAS
UPGRADED THIS STORM INTO A TYPHOON (10-MIN SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 120 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: BILIS is expected to maintain its
75-km/hr winds and continue moving WNW for the next 24
hours. It shall then make landfall over Central Taiwan
tomorrow afternoon, July 13 (between 5-6 PM local). The
storm is forecast to dissipate into a Tropical Depre-
ssion (TD) as it crosses the mountainous terrain of
Central Taiwan and shall reach Taiwan Strait early Fri-
day morning (July 14). The 48-hr advance forecast (July
14) shows the system making its second landfall along
Fujian Province, China Friday afternoon (July 14)
around 2 PM local time.

+ EFFECTS: BILIS' wide outer bands continues to spread
across the entire half of the Philippine Sea and along
Extreme Northern Luzon. The outer bands are expected to
bring passing rains with moderate to sometimes strong
winds (most especially along the southern periphery,
which is associated with the surge of Monsoon winds)
reaching 60 km/hr today. Large and dangerous sea surf
& waves can be expected over the exposed beaches of
the abovementioned areas. Kindly take precautionary
measures against these hazardous surf & waves.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Active Southwest Monsoon
continues to be strengthened by BILIS affecting the Phili-
ppines & becoming more frequent along the Western sections
of Luzon & Visayas. This monsoon system will bring cloudy
skies with moderate to strong SW'ly winds (approx 30 to
60 km/hr), accompanied with occasional moderate to heavy
rains. These rains may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides along river banks, low-lying
areas and mountain slopes of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 12 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 21.7º N...LONGITUDE 125.0º E
DISTANCE 1: 340 KM (185 NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 505 KM (273 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 994 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.2 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CENTRAL TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,250 KM (675 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM THU JULY 12
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 13 JULY: 22.4N 123.7E / 75-95 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 13 JULY: 23.4N 122.2E / 75-95 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 12 JULY POSITION: 21.5N 125.5E.
^UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN
STRAIT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WINDS
(AKA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR) OVER TS BILIS TRACK HINDERING
STORM DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN MARGIN-
ALLY THROUGH 36 HOURS ALLOWING TS BILIS TO SLOWLY INTEN-
SIFY. BEYOND 36 HOURS INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN, LOWERING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LANDFALL BETWEEN 48 AND 72
HOURS WILL CAUSE TS BILIS TO BEGIN DISSIPATING BEYOND
48 HOURS...(more info)

>> BILIS {pronounced: bee~lees}, meaning: Speed;
fleetness. Name contributed by: Philippines.

_________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 12 JULY: 21.4N 124.9E / NW @ 19 KPH / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on the TS BILIS (FLORITA/05W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm