Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS EWINIAR (ESTER) now entering PAR... [Update #06]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #06

Name: TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR [ESTER/04W/0603]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SUN 02 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) MON 03 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #011
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TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR (04W) IS NOW ENTERING THE PHILIPPINE
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) AND WAS ALREADY NAMED BY
PAGASA AS ESTER...NOT YET A THREAT TO THE PHILIPPINES.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: EWINIAR is expected to continue tracking
NW'ly across the Philippine Sea for the next 3 days. Forecast
to become a 120-km/hr Typhoon late tonight or early tomorrow
morning. The Three to Five-Day Advance Forecast (July 5-7)
still shows the system turning more to the North, sparing the
Philippines, but heading in the direction of Okinawa-Southern
Japan area.

+ EFFECTS: EWINIAR is no longer directly affecting Micronesia,
however, the Islands of Yap & Ulithi are still under the in-
fluence of its outer (feeder) bands. The storm's outer bands
is characterize with moderate to heavy rains with moderate to
sometimes strong winds that could produce flying debris, life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides along river banks, low-
lying areas and mountain slopes over the affected island.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: None yet. However, this storm is
expected to enhance & suck the Southwest (SW) Monsoon across
the Philippines especially the western sections beginning next
week (July 04-08). This monsoon system will bring cloudy skies
with winds of 30 to 60 km/hr, accompanied with light, moderate
to heavy rains. These rains may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides along river banks, low-lying areas and
mountain slopes of the affected areas.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: a new Active Low Pressure Area (aka.
Tropical Disturbance) has formed over Central Micronesia and
has drifted Westward during the past 6 hours. The disturbance
was located approximately 2,215 km SE of TS EWINIAR (4.8N
154.1E) or halfway between the Islands of Pohnpei & Chuuk. It
is likely to become a significant Tropical Cyclone within the
next 24 to 48 hours. Stay tuned for more updates on this
system.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 02 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 11.4º N...LONGITUDE 135.1º E
DISTANCE 1: 390 KM (210 NM) WNW OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM

DISTANCE 2: 460 KM (250 NM) NNE OF KOROR, PALAU, FSM

DISTANCE 3: 1,195 KM (645 NM) ESE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 984 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 23 FEET (7.0 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 09 KM/HR (05 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 520 KM (280 NM)/AVERAGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM SUN JULY 02
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 03 JULY: 12.0N 134.5E / 120-150 KPH [Typhoon]
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 03 JULY: 12.9N 133.6E / 130-160 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 02 JULY POSITION: 11.2N 135.3E.
^TS EWINIAR WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE (STHPR) TO THE NORTH. THE STORM HAS SLOWED AND
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN TRACK DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS AS IT HAS IMPINGED UPON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS
STHPR. A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST ASIA IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE STHPR OVER TIME,
WHICH WILL ALLOW EWINIAR TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS....(more info)

>> EWINIAR {pronounced: ee~win~yar}, meaning: Chuuk
traditional storm God. Name contributed by: Micronesia.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 02 JULY: 11.1N 135.2E / WNW @ 11 KPH / 75 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the
      highest. Red letters indicate new areas being hoisted. For more
      explanations on these signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on
   this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on the TS EWINIAR (ESTER/04W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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