Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS BILIS (FLORITA) nears Northern Luzon... [Update #06]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #06

Name: TROPICAL STORM BILIS [FLORITA/05W/0604]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 10 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) TUE 11 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #010
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THE LARGE TROPICAL STORM BILIS (FLORITA) RAPIDLY ACCELE-
RATED AND INTENSIFIED FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS WHILE OVER
THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CURRENT PATH AND FORECAST TRACK
OF THIS STORM IS SIMILAR TO ITS PREDECESSOR SIX YEARS
AGO (SUPER TYPHOON BILIS OF AUG 2000)
. TAIWAN IN SERIOUS
THREAT AGAIN BY THE SAME "BILIS", ALTHOUGH THIS TIME ITS
A LITTLE WEAKER, BUT BOTH THE TWO "BILIS" WERE FAST-MOVERS.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: BILIS is expected continue tracking
WNW to NW'ly across the Philippine Sea for the next 3 days
and shall reach Typhoon strength before striking Taiwan.
The 4 to 5 day-Long range forecast (July 14-15) shows the
system making landfall Northern Taiwan - Friday evening
(approx 8-9 PM local time, July 14), passing very close to
Taipei or about 13 km to the ENE of Taipei around 10 PM.

+ EFFECTS: Due to its large circulation, BILIS' outer
bands continues to cover the entire half of the Philippine
Sea & the Caroline Islands. The outer bands are expected
to bring passing rains with gale force winds (most espe-
cially along the southern periphery, which is associated
with the surge of Monsoon winds) reaching 55 km/hr today.
Large and dangerous sea surf can be expected over the ex-
posed beaches of the abovementioned Pacific Islands.
Kindly take precautionary measures against these
hazardous surf.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest Monsoon conti-
nues to be enhanced by BILIS, affecting the whole Phili-
ppine Islands (particularly the western sections), the
Micronesian Islands of Yap, Ulithi (except Palau). This
monsoon system will bring cloudy skies with moderate to
sometimes strong SW'ly winds (approx 30 to 60 km/hr),
accompanied with moderate to heavy occasional rains.
These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides along river banks, low-lying areas and
mountain slopes of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 10 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 16.9º N...LONGITUDE 131.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 865 KM (467 NM) NE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 1,015 KM (548 NM) ENE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,085 KM (585 NM) ESE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 991 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 30 KM/HR (16 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,110 KM (600 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MON JULY 10
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 11 JULY: 18.0N 130.2E / 85-100 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 11 JULY: 19.2N 128.8E / 95-120 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 10 JULY POSITION: 16.6N 132.1E.
^TS BILIS IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW BETWEEN 48
& 72 HOURS DUE TO THE COMPENSATING STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
STORM...(more info)

>> BILIS {pronounced: bee~lees}, meaning: Speed;
fleetness. Name contributed by: Philippines.

_________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 PM (06 GMT) 10 JULY: 16.5N 132.4E / NW @ 19 KPH / 75 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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