Bushman's Typhoon Blog: KAEMI (06W) to become a Typhoon tonight...[Update #05]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #05

Name: TROPICAL STORM KAEMI [06W/0605]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) THU 20 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) FRI 21 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #010
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...KAEMI (06W) ON THE BRINK OF BECOMING A TYPHOON...
TEMPORARILY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) TOMORROW MORNING. SHALL BE NAMED
LOCALLY BY PAGASA AS "GLENDA."

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: The Projected Forecast Track of KAEMI
has changed again. The storm is expected to resume WNW
after 6 to 12 hours and track across the Philippine Sea
for the next 3 days, becoming a Category 1 Typhoon to-
night. The 4 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast now shows the
system reaching almost 200 km/hr as it approaches Taiwan
Tuesday afternoon, July 25.

+ EFFECTS: KAEMI's outer bands continues to spread across
Yap & Ulithi Islands. These islands may still experience
moderate to sometimes heavy rainfall with gale-force winds
of up to 50 km/hr tonight. Moderate to rough seas with
dangerous surf & waves reaching 2 to 3 feet can be expected
over the islands tonight.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Tropical Disturbance (LPA/
99W/1008 mb) over the South China Sea has remained dis-
organized as it starts dissipating due to poor atmospheric
conditions along the area. Unless regeneration occurs,
this is the final watch on this LPA.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 20 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.8º N...LONGITUDE 137.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 1,535 KM (828 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 2: 485 KM (260 NM) NNW OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM
DISTANCE 3: 260 KM (140 NM) EAST OF P.A.R.
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 110 KM/HR (60 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 980 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 20 FEET (6.0 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 590 KM (320 NM)/AVERAGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM THU JULY 20
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 21 JULY: 14.9N 136.3E / 140-165 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 21 JULY: 16.2N 134.7E / 165-205 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 20 JULY POSITION: 13.5N 137.7E.
^TS KAEMI IS FORECAST TO SLOW AS IT TRACKS INTO A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) WEST OF TS KAEMI HAS BEGUN TO IMPEDE
MOVEMENT, SLOWING THE SYSTEM FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
AROUND THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TS KAEMI IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
MORE NORTHWARD AROUND THE TUTT CELL AND WILL BEGIN TO

SEE MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE INFLUENCE FROM THE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE TRACK TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE THE SYSTEMS TRACK
SPEED...(more info)

>> KAEMI {pronounced: gae~mi}, meaning: An ant. A very
   small insect that lives in highly organized groups.
   It often appears in Korean fairy tales as a symbol
   of diligence. Name contributed by: Republic of Korea.

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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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