Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS BILIS (FLORITA) enhances SW Monsoon across RP... [Update #09]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #09

Name: TROPICAL STORM BILIS [FLORITA/05W/0604]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 12 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) WED 12 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #016
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TROPICAL STORM BILIS (FLORITA) WEAKENS AS IT ENHANCES
THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES...NOW ACCE-
LERATING CLOSER TO TAIWAN
...STORM WARNING SIGNALS RE-
MAINS HOISTED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: BILIS is expected to continue moving
NW'ly for the next 2 days (48 hrs) and shall re-intensi-
fy as it makes landfall along the northern tip of Taiwan
tomorrow Thu evening, July 13 (around 8 PM local). The
core of the storm forecast to pass about 30 km NNE of
Taipei by midnight of July 14 (Fri). The 3 day-Long range
forecast (July 15) shows the system making landfall along
the Fujian-Zhejiang border of China around midnight, July
15 (Sat).

+ EFFECTS: BILIS' wide outer bands continues to spread
across the entire half of the Philippine Sea and along
portions of Extreme Northern Luzon. The outer bands is
expected to bring passing rains with moderate to some-
times strong winds (most especially along the southern
periphery, which is associated with the surge of Monsoon
winds) reaching 60 km/hr today. Large and dangerous sea
surf & waves can be expected over the exposed beaches of
the abovementioned areas. Kindly take precautionary mea-
sures against these hazardous surf & waves.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest Monsoon con-
tinues to be enhanced by BILIS across the Philippines,
becoming more frequent along the Western sections of
Luzon & Visayas including Metro Manila. This monsoon
system will bring cloudy skies with moderate to some-
times strong SW'ly winds (approx 30 to 60 km/hr), accom-
panied with occasional moderate to heavy rains. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud-
slides along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain
slopes of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 12 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 20.7º N...LONGITUDE 126.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 480 KM (260 NM) EAST OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 575 KM (311 NM) NE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 3: 700 KM (377 NM) SE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 994 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 26 KM/HR (14 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,110 KM (600 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM WED JULY 12
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 12 JULY: 21.8N 125.3E / 85-100 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 13 JULY: 25.5N 121.5E / 95-120 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 12 JULY POSITION: 20.3N 127.0E.
^TS BILIS IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
(STHPR) ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN. THIS MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS, ALLOWING TS
BILIS TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN
...(more info)

>> BILIS {pronounced: bee~lees}, meaning: Speed;
fleetness. Name contributed by: Philippines.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 12 JULY: 20.3N 126.8E / WNW @ 19 KPH / 100 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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