Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon EWINIAR (ESTER)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #13

Name: TYPHOON EWINIAR [ESTER/04W/0603]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 06 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) THU 06 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #025
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TYPHOON EWINIAR (ESTER) TURNING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
WEAKENS FURTHER...LIKELY TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS IT ENTERS
AN AREA OF IMPROVE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: EWINIAR is expected to maintain its
NW'ly track for the next 24 to 36 hours then shall begin
turning northward. Its Eye/Center is expected to pass very
close, west of Okinawa Is., Japan by Saturday afternoon
(July 8), around 4 to 5 PM local time. The 3 to 5-Day Ad-
vance Forecast (July 9-11) shows the system making land-
fall over Northwestern Kyushu, Japan in the vicinity of
Sasebo City early morning Monday, July 10 around 1 to 2 AM
before moving across the Sea of Japan.

+ EFFECTS: EWINIAR's large circulation remains over the
Northern Philippine Sea. however, its Northern Outer
(Feeder) Bands is forecast to reach Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
sometime early tomorrow Friday (July 7). The storm's outer
bands are characterize with passing moderate to heavy rains
with moderate to sometimes strong winds that could produce
flying debris, life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain slopes over
the affected island.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest Monsoon remains
weak, bringing only mostly cloudy skies from Central Luzon,
Metro Manila, Bicol Region down to Visayas & Mindanao. Fur-
ther strengthening of the monsoon is still possible begi-
nning tomorrow through the weekend (July 07-09), as the Ty-
phoon approaches Okinawa. This monsoon system once streng-
thened - will bring cloudy skies with winds of approx. 30
to 60 km/hr, accompanied with moderate to heavy rains. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud-
slides along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain
slopes of the affected areas.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Tropical Disturbance (LPA/98W/
1006 mb) is now over south of the Marianas and has showed
signs of development as new convection consolidates. The
possibility of becoming a well-develop Tropical Cyclone is
likely within the next 24 to 48 hours. The disturbance was
last located approximately 380 km South of Hagatna, Guam
(10.0N 145.0E). Stay tuned for more updates on this develo-
ping system.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 06 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 19.0º N...LONGITUDE 129.0º E
DISTANCE 1: 775 KM (418 NM) ENE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
DISTANCE 2: 750 KM (405 NM) ESE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 3: 840 KM (455 NM) SSE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 240 KM/HR (130 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 938 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 35 FEET (10.6 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY THREE (3)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 11 KM/HR (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: OKINAWA-RYUKYU AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 925 KM (500 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM THU JULY 06
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 06 JULY: 19.7N 128.5E / 205-250 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 07 JULY: 20.8N 127.9E / 215-260 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 06 JULY POSITION: 18.8N 129.2E.
^AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP-LAYER STEERING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE HAS BUILT IN TO THE NORTH OF TY EWINIAR WHILE THE
PRIMARY RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF JAPAN. THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE EXTENSION
THROUGH 24 HRS. A MORE POLEWARD TRACK IS THEN FORECAST
AS MIDLATITUDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN ASIA
WEAKENS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND
ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO CREST THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 48
AND 72 HRS...(more info)

>> EWINIAR {pronounced: ee~win~yar}, meaning: Chuuk
traditional storm God. Name contributed by: Micronesia.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 06 JULY: 18.8N 129.2E / NW @ 11 KPH / 165 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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