Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon EWINIAR (ESTER)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #19

Name: TYPHOON EWINIAR [ESTER/04W/0603]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 09 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SUN 09 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #037
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TYPHOON EWINIAR (ESTER) PULLING AWAY FROM OKINAWA...AIMING

FOR NORTH KOREA
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: EWINIAR is expected to move NNW'ly for
the next 12 hours before turning Northward across the East
China Sea. Its weakening core (Eye+EyeWall) is expected to
pass to the west of Cheju Island tomorrow Monday morning
(around 8 AM HK time, July 10). Long range Forecast (July
11-12) shows the system weakening into a mere Tropical
Storm as it makes landfall over North Korea around 1 AM HK
Time Tuesday morning (July 11).

+ EFFECTS: The tiny Pacific Island chain of Yaeyama, Oki-
nawa & Ryukyu continues to be under EWINIAR's spiral bands
(Outer and Inner). The storm's spiral bands are expected to
bring moderate to heavy rains with damaging winds that
could produce flying debris, life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides along river banks, low-lying areas and moun
tain slopes over the affected island. Residents residing
along the coastal beachfront areas of Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryuk-
yu Islands are advised to seek higher grounds due to possi-
ble high waves from the sea. Coastal Storm Surge flooding
from 4 to 5 feet can be expected along the path of this
typhoon, thereby advising all sea vessels to remain at
port and avoid passing over it.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest Monsoon is cu-
rrently receding as EWINIAR moves farther away, but still
affecting Metro Manila, Western Luzon including Calayan and
Batanes Group, Bicol Region, Quezon & Western Visayas. This
monsoon system will bring cloudy skies with moderate to
sometimes strong SW'ly winds (approx. 30 to 40 km/hr),
accompanied with moderate to heavy occasional rains. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud-
slides along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain
slopes of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 09 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 27.0º N...LONGITUDE 125.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 235 KM (127 NM) WNW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, PH
DISTANCE 2: 715 KM (385 NM) SSW OF CHEJU ISLAND, S. KOREA
DISTANCE 3: 625 KM (337 NM) SE OF SHANGHAI, CHINA

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 24 FEET (7.3 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTH KOREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 835 KM (450 NM)/LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM SUN JULY 09
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 09 JULY: 28.9N 125.3E / 120-150 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 10 JULY: 31.9N 125.1E / 100-130 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 09 JULY POSITION: 26.3N 125.8E.
^THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEEP LAYER STEERING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EAST OF THE STORM HAS BECOME ORIENTED
SOUTH TO NORTH, AND TY EWINIAR WILL ACCELERATE WHILE
TRACKING POLEWARD (NORTHWARD) AS THE STEERING FLOW
INCREASES. THIS NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CON-
TINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MERIDIONAL FLOW
IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST
AND A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA.
TY EWINIAR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSI-
TION BY 36 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATI-
TUDE FLOW...(more info)

>> EWINIAR {pronounced: ee~win~yar}, meaning: Chuuk
traditional storm God. Name contributed by: Micronesia.
_______________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 09 JULY: 26.3N 125.9E / NORTH @ 22 KPH / 150 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)_______________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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