Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS BILIS (FLORITA) passed over Taipei...heads for Fujian [Update #13]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #13

Name: TROPICAL STORM BILIS [FLORITA/05W/0604]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) FRI 14 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) FRI 14 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #024
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TROPICAL STORM BILIS (FLORITA) JUST CROSSED THE NORTHERN
TIP OF TAIWAN AROUND MIDNIGHT, PASSING VERY CLOSE TO
TAIPEI...NOW OFF THE STRAIT OF TAIWAN...SECOND LANDFALL
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: BILIS is expected to make its 2nd
landfall this afternoon just to the South of Fuzhou City
or over Fujian Province of China (approx 2 PM local time).
Thereafter, rapid dissipation will be anticipated as it
moves further inland across China - due to effects of ru-
gged mountainous terrain & the absence of warm moist air
from the sea.

+ EFFECTS: The core & inner bands of this storm continues
to affect Taiwan and SE China particularly Fujian Province.
Stormy weather conditions (Heavy rains with very strong
winds) will continue along areas affected by the core and
inner bands of BILIS. Its wide-outer bands continues to
spread across Extreme Northern Luzon, Batanes & Calayan
Group of Islands, the northernmost sections of South
China Sea and Philippine Sea including Balintang & Bashi
Channel, & Eastern Guangdong (China). These outer bands
are expected to bring passing rains with moderate to
sometimes strong winds (most especially along the sou-
thern periphery) reaching 60 km/hr tonight until tomo-
rrow. Large and dangerous waves & sea surf can be expec-
ted over the exposed beaches of the abovementioned areas.
Kindly take precautionary measures against these hazar-
dous surf & waves.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The active & strong Southwest
Monsoon is still being enhanced by BILIS affecting Luzon,
becoming more intense along the Western sections (parti-
cularly Metro Manila, Subic Bay and the cities of Dagupan,
Laoag, Vigan, Baguio & Tagaytay). This monsoon system will
bring cloudy skies with occasionally moderate to heavy
rains & moderate to strong SW'ly winds (approx 30 to 60
km/hr). These rains may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides along river banks, low-lying areas
and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Meanwhile,
improving weather conditions over Western Visayas &
Palawan can be expected as the SW Monsoon moves northward.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 14 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 25.3º N...LONGITUDE 120.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 85 KM (45 NM) WNW OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 2: 175 KM (95 NM) ESE OF FUZHOU, CHINA
DISTANCE 3: 545 KM (295 NM) NNW OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 984 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: FUJIAN PROVINCE, CHINA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,295 KM (700 NM)/VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM FRI JULY 14
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 48 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 14 JULY: 25.7N 119.3E / 85-100 KPH
> 2 AM (15 GMT) 15 JULY: 26.1N 117.7E / 65-85 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 JULY POSITION: 25.2N 121.3E.
^DESPITE AN EARLIER POLEWARD TURN IN RESPONSE TO A TEM-
PORARY WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BY TWO TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS,
TS BILIS HAS RESUMED A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STEE-
RING RIDGE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE
STORM. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AND LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CENTRAL CHINA COAST WITHIN 24 HOURS...(more info)

>> BILIS {pronounced: bee~lees}, meaning: Speed;
fleetness. Name contributed by: Philippines.

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 14 JULY: 25.3N 120.7E / WNW @ 19 KPH / 100 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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