Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon EWINIAR (ESTER)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #17

Name: TYPHOON EWINIAR [ESTER/04W/0603]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 08 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SAT 08 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #033
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TYPHOON EWINIAR (ESTER) LOSING PUNCH AS IT APPROACHES
YAEYAMA ISLANDS...MONSOON RAINS STILL AFFECTING BATANES
AND LUZON (PHILIPPINES).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: EWINIAR is expected to move NNW'ly for
the next 24 hours then shall begin turning northward over
the East China Sea. Its core (Eye+EyeWall) is expected to
pass 260 km to the West of Okinawa, Japan early tomorrow
morning (July 9). The 2 to 3-Day Advance Forecast (July
10-11) shows the system making landfall over North Korea
as a downgraded Tropical Storm early morning Tuesday (July
11) and shall pass very close to Seoul during that time.

+ EFFECTS: EWINIAR's circulation is now approaching Yaeyama
Islands & Okinawa. Its Outer and Inner Rain Bands is fore-
cast to reach Yaeyama Islands today and Okinawa area later
tonight. The storm's outer/inner bands is expected to bring
moderate to heavy rains with damaging winds that could pro-
duce flying debris, life-threatening flash floods and mud-
slides along river banks, low-lying areas and mountain
slopes over the affected island. Residents residing along
the coastal beachfront areas of Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Is-
lands are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible
high waves from the sea. Coastal Storm Surge flooding from
6 to 8 feet can be expected along the path of this approa-
ching typhoon, thereby advising all sea vessels to remain
at port and avoid passing over it.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: The Southwest Monsoon conti-
nues to be enhanced by EWINIAR and is currently affecting
Metro Manila, Western Luzon & Western Visayas. This monsoon
system will bring cloudy skies with moderate to sometimes
strong SW'ly winds (approx. 30 to 60 km/hr), accompanied
with moderate to heavy occasional rains. These rains may
produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides along
river banks, low-lying areas and mountain slopes of the
affected areas.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: The Tropical Disturbance (LPA/
98W/1005 mb) situated south of Mariana Islands is slowly
intensifying and remains the subject of a Tropical Cyclone
Formation Alert (TCFA)...likely to become a significant
Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 18 hours. The dis-
turbance was last located approximately 480 km SW of
Hagatna, Guam (9.9N 142.2E). Stay tuned for more
updates on this developing system.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 08 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 22.9º N...LONGITUDE 126.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 530 KM (286 NM) NE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 430 KM (230 NM) SSW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 3: 530 KM (285 NM) ESE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 160 KM/HR (85 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 958 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 32 FEET (9.7 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TW0 (2)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: YAEYAMA-OKINAWA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 815 KM (440 NM)/LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM SAT JULY 08
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - CALAYAN & BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 08 JULY: 24.1N 125.8E / 150-185 KPH
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 09 JULY: 26.2N 125.2E / 130-160 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 08 JULY POSITION: 22.5N 126.6E.
^TY EWINIAR IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
(STHPR), WHICH HAS BEGUN TO BUILD WESTWARD TOWARDS
OKINAWA. THIS HAS CAUSED TY EWINIAR TO INCREASE ITS
SPEED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE STHPR WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS, KEEPING THE SYSTEM
MOVING ON A NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK. AROUND 48 HOURS, TY
EWINIAR WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY MIDLATITUDE WES-
TERLIES, CAUSING IT TO BE STEERED TO THE NORTH-NORTH-
EAST...(more info)

>> EWINIAR {pronounced: ee~win~yar}, meaning: Chuuk
traditional storm God. Name contributed by: Micronesia.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 08 JULY: 22.6N 126.4E / NNW @ 11 KPH / 165 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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