Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Newly-formed TD 06W passing South of Guam...[Update #01]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #01

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W [UNNAMED]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) TUE 18 JULY 2006
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) WED 19 JULY 2006
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #002
_______________________________________________________________________

NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (UNNAMED) PASSING
HUNDREDS OF MILES TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM...NORTHERN OUTER
SPIRAL BANDS NOW SPREADING INTO SAIPAN AND THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 06W is expected to continue tracking
WNW to NW'ly past the Southernmost Mariana Islands and
shall become a Tropical Storm tomorrow Wednesday after-
noon, July 19. The 2 to 3-day Long-Range Forecast shows
the storm entering the Eastern Boundary of the Philippine
Area of Responsibility (PAR) Thursday night, July 20th
(as a 85-km/hr storm).

+ EFFECTS: The northern outer bands of 06W continues to
affect the Southern Marianas including Guam and is now
spreading into Saipan and the Northern Marianas. These
islands can expect moderate to heavy rains with passing
gale-force winds which is usually associated with pa-
ssing squalls within the outer bands. Moderate to rough
seas with dangerous surf can be expected over the above-
mentioned islands throughout tonight until tomorrow.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: N/A.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!

_______________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 18 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 9.7º N...LONGITUDE 145.2º E {SatFix}
DISTANCE 1: 415 KM (225 NM) SOUTH OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 2: 780 KM (420 NM) ENE OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM
DISTANCE 3: 1,120 KM (605 NM) EAST OF P.A.R.
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 08 FEET (2.4 METERS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERNMOST MARIANA ISLANDS
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 665 KM (360 NM)/AVG/LARGE
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM TUE JULY 18
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

09-21 HR. FORECAST:
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 JULY: 10.8N 144.0E / 55-75 KPH
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 19 JULY: 12.0N 141.9E / 65-85 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 18 JULY POSITION: 9.8N 145.9E.
^TD 06W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMA-
TOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. A CYCLONIC CIR-
CULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTHWEST OF TD 06W IS FORECAST TO
INHIBIT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREA-
SING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL HAMPER STORM INTENSIFI-
CATION...(more info)

_________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics, Japan) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Sea Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srhnoaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on the TD 06W (UNNAMED)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm