Saturday, October 27, 2012

Typhoon SON-TINH (OFEL) Update #013


for Saturday, 27 October 2012 [7:06 PM PhT]


Issued: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Saturday 27 Oct 2012
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sunday 28 Oct 2012

Typhoon Son-Tinh (Ofel) rapidly gained strength while passing to the south of Hainan endangers Northern Vietnam.

Meanwhile, this system will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring on-and-off rains, squalls, thunderstorms across Guangdong Province (China). Winds will be moderate to strong not in excess of 40 km/hr. The sea waves along the coast will be rough and dangerous (8-12 feet).

Residents and visitors along Central and Northern Vietnam including Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of Son-Tinh (Ofel).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 5 pm today, the eye of Typhoon Son-Tinh (Ofel) was located to the south of Hainan Island...about 113 km south of Sanya, Hainan or 169 km northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 22 km/hr in the general direction of Northern Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to 165 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 175 kilometers. Son-Tinh (Ofel) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 780 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is estimated to be heavy (220 mm).


Typhoon Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to move northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours with a gradual decrease in its forward speed...and could turn to the north between 24 to 48 hours, then recurve northeastward through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to move into the Southern Gulf of Tonkin tonight and should be approaching closer to the coast of Northern Vietnam by Sunday morning...making landfall near the city of Thanh Hoa by late Sunday afternoon or early evening. Son-Tinh (Ofel) is likely to pass very close to the west of Hanoi on Monday afternoon and over the Vietnamese-Chinese Border on Tuesday afternoon.

This typhoon may still intensify during the next 12 hours as it enters the southern part of the Gulf of Tonkin...and Son-Tinh (Ofel) could become a major Typhoon later tonight or early Sunday morning. It will then start to dissipate as soon as it enters the land mass of Northern Vietnam on Sunday evening through Monday...and just be an area of low pressure on Tuesday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Just along the shores of Northern Vietnam...making landfall...about 35 km south-southeast of Thanh Hoa, Vietnam [5PM OCT 28: 19.5N 105.9E @ 150kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Moving over land, across Northern Vietnam...downgraded into a Tropical Storm...about 35 km north of Hanoi, Vietnam [5PM OCT 29: 21.3N 105.8E @ 95kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipated over land...just an area of low pressure near the Vietnamese-Chinese Border...about 100 km northeast of Hanoi [5PM OCT 30: 21.7N 106.5E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

ROUND EYE - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Southern Hainan and the Coastal Areas of North-Central Vietnam including the cities of Hue and Da Nang. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the rest of Hainan Island, Gulf of Tonkin, Central and Northern Vietnam, and Western Guangdong. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (light to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 220 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern Hainan, Northern and Central Vietnam. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Philippines, Rest of Hainan Island, Southwestern China and Vietnam (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat October 27, 2012
Class/Name: TY Son-Tinh (Ofel)
Location of Eye: 17.2� N Lat 109.3� E Lon
Distance 1: 113 km (S) closer to Sanya, Hainan
Distance 2: 169 km (NE) closer to Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 197 km (ENE) closer to Hue, Vietnam
Distance 4: 221 km (SSE) closer to Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 5: 416 km (SE) closer to Vinh, Vietnam
Distance 6: 420 km (SE) closer to Cua Lo, Vietnam
Distance 7: 469 km (SE) closer to Thanh Hoa, Vietnam
Distance 8: 473 km (SE) closer to Thai Hoa, Vietnam
Distance 9: 483 km (SE) closer to Nam Dinh, Vietnam
Distance 10: 553 km (SE) closer to Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 22 kph
Towards: Northern Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [220 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 780 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)

T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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