Wednesday, October 03, 2012

TS GAEMI [MARCE] - Update #003


for Wednesday, 03 October 2012 [9:18 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday October 03, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on GAEMI (21W).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 03 October 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)
Tropical Storm GAEMI (MARCE) has Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) last night and continues to move slowly south-southwest. Outer rainbands continues to affect the West Coast of Luzon including Metro Manila and Mindoro.

Residents and visitors along Western Luzon (Philippines) and Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Gaemi (21W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed October 03, 2012
Location of Center: 15.0º N Lat 117.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 302 km (W) closer to Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 334 km (WNW) closer to Subic/Olongapo City
Distance 3: 350 km (WSW) away from Dagupan City
Distance 4: 366 km (W) away from Clark Intl. Airport
Distance 5: 423 km (WNW) closer to Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: SSE @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: West Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (Extreme)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF
(for Philippines only)


GAEMI (21W) is expected to continue drifting south-southeast to southward during the next 24 hours, turning west-southwest to West thereafter. On the forecast track, the center of Gaemi is expected to remain over the open waters of the West Philippine Sea, just west of Manila and will head toward Vietnam later on the forecast.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening will be expected during the next 24 to 48 hours...and Gaemi could become a minimal Typhoon on Friday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center. GAEMI is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers (300 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY MORNING: Drifting southward across the West Philippine Sea...gained more strength...about 409 km (W) away from Metro Manila [6AM OCT 04: 14.6N 117.3E @ 100kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: About to exit PAR as it moves westward slowly...strengthens into a Typhoon...about 592 km (W) away from Metro Manila [6AM OCT 05: 14.4N 115.6E @ 120kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Accelerating westward across the South China Sea...approaching Vietnam...about 377 km (SE) closer to Da Nang, Vietnam [6AM OCT 06: 14.7N 111.4E @ 120kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the West Coast of Luzon (from Ilocos Provinces down to Batangas, Metro Manila and Mindoro including Lubang Island. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Gaemi (21W) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS GAEMI (20W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2012.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Gaemi's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS GAEMI (MARCE)...go visit our website @:


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