Thursday, October 18, 2012

TS PRAPIROON (NINA) - Update #029


for Thursday, 18 October 2012 [8:50 AM PhT]


Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 18 Oct 2012
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday 18 Oct 2012

Tropical Storm Prapiroon (Nina) has moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it swifts past the direction of the sea south of Japan...Rainbands continues to affect Okinawa and the Ryukyus.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Maria (23W) continues to move fast across the Northwest Pacific Ocean...and is likely to weaken in the next 24 hours. Its center was located about 849 km east-northeast of Chichi Jima...with winds of 85 km/hr...moving east-northeast at 31 kph. This will be the final information on TS Maria.

Residents and visitors along the southern coastline of Japan should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 6 am today, the center of Tropical Storm Prapiroon (Nina) was located over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 1,219 km northeast of Basco, Batanes or 402 km east-northeast of Naha International Airport, Okinawa...currently moving northeast with a fast forward speed of 37 km/hr.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 85 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 290 kilometers from the center. Improving weather conditions will be expected later today across Okinawa as the tropical storm force winds recede. Prapiroon (Nina) is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,110 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near and south of the center of Prapiroon (Nina) is estimated to be heavy (220 mm).


Tropical Storm Prapiroon (Nina) is expected to continue moving rapidly northeast to east-northeast during the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Prapiroon (Nina) will move across the sea south of Japan on Friday and over the open waters of the Northwest Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

This storm will continue losing strength during the next 24 to 48 hours. The weakening of Prapiroon (Nina) in the next couple of days is due to its movement across cooler sea surface temperatures (lower heat content) and unfavorable atmospheric conditions.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY MORNING: Accelerating rapidly east-northeastward while passing to the sea south of Japan...intensifies slightly...about 489 km south of Tokyo, Japan [6AM OCT 19: 31.3N 139.7E @ 85kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Still on a rapid east-northeasterly track across the Northwest Pacific Ocean...weakens over cooler ocean temperatures...about 1,101 km east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan [6AM OCT 20: 33.4N 151.4E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Amami Is. and the Ryukyus. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Okinawa Island and Kyushu. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (light to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas near and south of the center of Prapiroon (Nina).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu October 18, 2012
Class/Name: TS Prapiroon (Nina)
Location of Center: 26.7º N Lat 131.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 288 km (E) away from Amami Is., Ryukyus
Distance 2: 388 km (ENE) away from Okinawa City
Distance 3: 399 km (ENE) away from Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 4: 402 km (ENE) away from Naha Airport, Okinawa
Distance 5: 1,219 km (NE) away from Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph
Present Movement: NE @ 37 kph
Towards: Sea South of Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [220 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 1,110 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)

T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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