Thursday, October 04, 2012

TS GAEMI [MARCE] - Update #008 [New Format]


for Thursday, 04 October 2012 [7:12 PM PhT]



Issued: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thu 04 October 2012
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Fri 05 October 2012

Tropical Storm GAEMI (MARCE) has slightly gained strength while moving south-southwest slowly across the West Philippine Sea. Scattered rainbands continues to affect the Western parts of Southern & Western Luzon including Bataan, Zambales, Mindoro and Metro Manila.

Residents and visitors along Western Luzon (Philippines) and Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Gaemi (Marce).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 6 pm today, the center of Tropical Storm Gaemi (Marce) was located over the West Philippine Sea...about 237 km west of Subic Bay or 323 km west of Quezon City and is currently moving slowly south-southwest away from the west coast of Luzon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 85 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 130 kilometers from the center. These winds will remain over the West Philippine Sea and not affecting any land areas. Gaemi (Marce) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Gaeme (Marce) is estimated to be heavy (350 mm).


Gaemi (Marce) is expected to move west-southwest to westward during the next 12 to 24 hours, accelerating more to the West through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Gaemi (Marce) will remain over the open waters of the West Philippine Sea, just west of Luzon as it heads toward Vietnam later in the forecast period. It is forecast to make landfall over Vietnam on Sunday.

Some re-strengthening of its wind speed is forecast during the next 24 to 48 hours...and Gaemi (Marce) could become a strong tropical storm on Saturday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY EVENING: Moving westward across the West Philippine Sea...away from the Philippines, intensifies slightly...about 409 km west of Subic Bay, Zambales [6PM OCT 05: 14.6N 116.5E @ 95kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Starts to move faster westward...already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...still gaining strength...about 524 km east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam [6PM OCT 06: 14.8N 112.9E @ 100kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens to a tropical depression and starts dissipating after making landfall over Vietnam...about 156 km south of Da Nang, Vietnam [6PM OCT 07: 14.7N 108.3E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
SCATTERED OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the West Coast of Luzon (from La Union down to Zambales, Bataan, Batangas, Cavite, Metro Manila and Mindoro including Lubang Island. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Gaemi (Marce).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu October 04, 2012
Class/Name: Tropical Storm Gaemi (Marce)
Location of Center: 14.7º N Lat 118.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 215 km (WSW) away from Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 215 km (WSW) away from Subic Bay
Distance 3: 274 km (WSW) away from Clark Intl. Airport
Distance 4: 277 km (SW) away from Dagupan City
Distance 5: 323 km (W) away from Quezon City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph
Present Movement: SSW Slowly
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 ft
Possible Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)

T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)








>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS GAEMI (MARCE)...go visit our website @:


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