Friday, October 19, 2012

TS PRAPIROON (NINA) - Update #031


for Thursday, 18 October 2012 [8:50 AM PhT]


Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday 19 Oct 2012
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday 19 Oct 2012

Tropical Storm Prapiroon (Nina) continues to pass over the sea south of Japan. Outer rainbands spreading across the coastal areas of Southeastern Japan.

Sailors, Mariners and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 5 am today, the center of Tropical Storm Prapiroon (Nina) was located over the open waters of the Sea south of Japan...about 434 km south-southeast of Tokyo, Japan or 1,435 km east-northeast of Okinawa, Japan...currently moving rapidly east-northeast with a forward speed of 37 km/hr.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 95 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 290 kilometers from the center. Improving weather conditions will be expected later tonight across Ryukyus as the storm continues to move away. Prapiroon (Nina) is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,000 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Prapiroon (Nina) is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).


Tropical Storm Prapiroon (Nina) is expected to continue moving rapidly northeast to east-northeast during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Prapiroon (Nina) will continue to move across the sea south of Japan today and over the open waters of the Northwest Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

This storm will start to weaken during the next 24 hours. The weakening of Prapiroon (Nina) in the next couple of days is due to its movement across cooler sea surface temperatures (lower heat content) and unfavorable atmospheric conditions.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Accelerating rapidly east-northeastward to eastward and weakening across the open sea...about 1,605 km east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan [5AM OCT 20: 32.7N 156.8E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Sea south of Japan). Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Eastern Honshu. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (light to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Prapiroon (Nina).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri October 19, 2012
Class/Name: TS Prapiroon (Nina)
Location of Center: 32.0º N Lat 141.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 434 km (SSE) away from Tokyo, Japan
Distance 2: 574 km (ESE) away from Tanabe, Japan
Distance 3: 1,435 km (ENE) away from Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph
Present Movement: ENE @ 37 kph
Towards: NW Pacific Ocean
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 1,000 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)

T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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