WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM GAEMI (MARCE) UPDATE NUMBER 012 (CORRECTED)
Issued: 5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Sat 06 October 2012
Next Update: 11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Sat 06 October 2012
Tropical Storm GAEMI (MARCE) has rapidly accelerated west-southwestward toward Southeastern Vietnam. Its thick rainbands are now spreading across Southeastern and Southern Vietnam.
Residents and visitors along Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia should closely monitor the development of Gaemi (Marce).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 5 am today, the center of Tropical Storm Gaemi (Marce) was remains over the South China Sea...about 385 km east-northeast of Nha Trang, Vietnam and is currently moving west to west-southwestward with a forward speed of 26 kph in the general direction of Southeastern Vietnam.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 60 kilometers from the center. These winds will remain over the open sea but will start to be felt along the shores of Southeastern Vietnam later tonight. Gaemi (Marce) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Gaeme (Marce) is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).
1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Gaemi (Marce) is expected to continue moving west to west-southwestward throughout the forecast period, with some decrease in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Gaemi (Marce) will be approaching the shores of Southern Vietnam this afternoon...and will make landfall just north of Nha Trang City in Vietnam tonight. Gaemi (Marce) is forecast to traverse the mountainous terrain of Southern Vietnam late tonight and cross Cambodia on Sunday.
A possible slight strengthening of its wind speed is forecast during the next 12 hours before it makes landfall. Gaemi (Marce) is likely to dissipate rapidly once it crosses Vietnam and Cambodia.
The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:
SUNDAY MORNING: Over Northeastern Cambodia...weakens into a Tropical Depression...about 319 km northeast of Phnom Penh, Cambodia [5AM OCT 07: 13.5N 107.1E @ 55kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas...but will reach the shorelines Southeastern Vietnam.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Southeastern and Southern Vietnam. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Gaemi (Marce).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat October 06, 2012
Class/Name: Tropical Storm Gaemi (Marce)
Location of Center: 13.9º N Lat 112.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 385 km (ENE) closer to Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 504 km (SE) closer to Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 581 km (SE) closer to Hue, Vietnam
Distance 4: 699 km (ENE) closer to Ho Chi Minh City
Distance 5: 950 km (WSW) away from Metro Manila
Distance 6: 380 km (NW) away from Pagasa Is., Spratlys
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: WSW @ 26 kph
Towards: Southeastern Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft
Possible Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS GAEMI (MARCE)...go visit our website @:
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