Friday, October 26, 2012

TS SON-TINH (OFEL) Update #010


for Friday, 26 October 2012 [7:26 PM PhT]


Issued: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Friday 26 Oct 2012
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Saturday 27 Oct 2012

Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Ofel) slows down slightly while moving towards Northern Vietnam...threatens Hainan Island. Outer rainbanbds now spreading across the eastern coastal areas of Hainan Island and Central Vietnam.

Meanwhile, this system will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring on-and-off rains, squalls, thunderstorms across the northern part of the South China and West Philippine Seas and Extreme Northern Luzon. Winds will be moderate to strong not in excess of 40 km/hr. The sea waves along the coast will be rough and dangerous (8-12 feet).

Residents and visitors along Central and Northern Vietnam including Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of Son-Tinh (Ofel).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 5 pm today, the center of Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Ofel) was located over the South China Sea...about 610 km southeast of Sanya, Hainan Island or 650 km east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 19 km/hr in the general direction of Northern Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 100 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 120 kilometers from the center. Son-Tinh (Ofel) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 780 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is estimated to be heavy (220 mm).


Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to continue moving west-northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours with a decrease in its forward speed. It will therefore maintain its track through 48 hours. Between 48 to 72 hours, Son-Tinh (Ofel) may start turning northwest to northward. On the forecast track, the core of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to continue moving across the South China Sea tonight until early Sunday. The storm should then be passing south of Hainan Island by late Saturday afternoon and approach the coast of Northern Vietnam Sunday morning. Son-Tinh (Ofel) is forecast to make landfall along the shores of Northern Vietnam on Sunday afternoon and move over land into the northernmost part of Vietnam Monday afternoon.

This storm is expected to intensify during the next 24 hours while over the South China Sea...and Son-Tinh (Ofel) could become a Typhoon tonight or early Saturday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Passing just to the south of Hainan Island...intensifies into a Category 2 Typhoon...about 119 km south-southwest of Sanya, Hainan Island [5PM OCT 27: 17.2N 109.0E @ 160kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall over Northern Vietnam...weakens into a Tropical Storm...about 161 km south-southwest of Hanoi, Vietnam [5PM OCT 28: 19.6N 105.5E @ 100kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipated into an area of low the vicinity of Northern Vietnam...about 159 km northwest of Hanoi [5PM OCT 29: 22.0N 104.8E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (South China Sea)...possible "Eye" may be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (100-130 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine & South China Seas)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the eastern coastal areas of Hainan Island and Central Vietnam. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (light to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 220 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri October 26, 2012
Class/Name: TS Son-Tinh (Ofel)
Location of Center: 15.2� N Lat 114.2� E Lon
Distance 1: 593 km (SE) closer to Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 2: 610 km (SE) closer to Sanya, Hainan
Distance 3: 622 km (W) away from Iba, Zambales
Distance 4: 650 km (ESE) closer to Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 5: 657 km (WNW) away from Subic Bay
Distance 6: 720 km (ESE) closer to Hue, Vietnam
Distance 7: 727 km (SE) closer to Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 8: 734 km (WNW) away from Metro Manila
Distance 9: 1,088 km (SE) closer to Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph
Towards: Northern Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [220 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 665 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)

T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS SON-TINH (OFEL)...go visit our website @:


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