WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (NINA) UPDATE NUMBER 013
Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Friday 12 Oct 2012
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Friday 12 Oct 2012
Typhoon PRAPIROON (NINA) lingers over the North Philippine Sea...may start to drift towards the northeast today.
Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Okinawa and Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6 am today, the ragged eye of Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) was located over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 686 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes or 770 km south of Okinawa, Japan...currently quasi-stationary.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 175 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 295 kilometers. These winds will remain over the open sea, not affecting any land areas. Prapiroon (Nina) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near and south of the center of Prapiroon (Nina) is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Prapiroon (Nina) is expected to move northeast slowly during the next 12 to 24 hours...and this movement will continue throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Prapiroon (Nina) will continue to remain over the open sea through Monday.
This typhoon may still slightly intensify during the next 24 hours...and Prapiroon (Nina) could become a major typhoon (category 3) later today or Saturday. After 36 hours, Prapiroon (Nina) should start to weaken as the system enters cooler sea surface temperatures (lower heat content).
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
SATURDAY MORNING: Moving slowly northeastward...becomes a major typhoon (category 3)...about 802 km east of Basco, Batanes [6AM OCT 13: 20.5N 129.7E @ 185kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Starts to weaken but maintains its category 3 strength while over the North Philippine Sea...maintains its northeast track...about 643 km south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan [6AM OCT 14: 21.8N 131.5E @ 175kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Weakens to a category 2 typhoon...continues on its northeasterly movement away from the Philippine Sea...about 645 southeast of Okinawa, Japan [6AM OCT 15: 23.0N 132.9E @ 165kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
30-KM RAGGED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (North & Central Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas...however its westernmost part continues to affect Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands and Northeastern Luzon (Cagayan and Isabela). Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 300 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Prapiroon (Nina).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri October 12, 2012
Class/Name: Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina)
Location of Eye: 19.6º N Lat 128.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 673 km (ENE) away from Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 691 km (NE) away from Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 3: 770 km (S) closer to Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 686 km (ESE) away from Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 750 km (ENE) away from Tuguegarao City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 890 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 41 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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