Sunday, October 14, 2012

Typhoon PRAPIROON (NINA) - Update #021


for Sunday, 14 October 2012 [8:29 PM PhT]



Issued: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sunday 14 Oct 2012
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Monday 15 Oct 2012

Typhoon PRAPIROON (NINA) continues to move north-northeast across the North Philippine Sea...may pose a threat to Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 23W (Unnamed), newly-formed over the Northern Mariana Islands (see StormTrack Map for more details)...currently developing, may become a Tropical Storm tonight or Monday. Its center was located about 495 km north-northwest of Guam...with winds of 55 km/hr...moving west at 11 kph towards the Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands. Forecast to pass near Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands on Tuesday...and 23W will not enter the Philippine Sea.

Residents and visitors along Okinawa and Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 6 pm today, the eye of Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) was located over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 979 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes or 553 km southeast of Okinawa City, Japan...currently moving north-northeast slowly with a forward speed of 5 km/hr.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 120 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 350 kilometers. These winds will remain over the open sea, not affecting any land areas. Prapiroon (Nina) is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,000 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near and north of the center of Prapiroon (Nina) is estimated to be heavy (400 mm).


Prapiroon (Nina) is expected to move slowly north to north-northwestward during the next 24 to 48 hours...and recurve sharply northeastward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Prapiroon (Nina) will continue to remain over the open sea, but may move closer to Okinawa on Tuesday and Wednesday and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

This typhoon may re-strengthen slightly during the next 2 days and weaken on day 3.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY EVENING: Moving slowly northward as it maintains its strength...about 464 km southeast of Okinawa, Japan [6PM OCT 15: 23.9N 130.4E @ 130kph].
TUESDAY EVENING: Turns north-northwest as it nears Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands...about 347 km southeast of Okinawa, Japan [6PM OCT 16: 24.8N 130.7E @ 140kph].
WEDNESDAY NOON: Recurves to the northeast away from Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands...about 468 east of Okinawa, Japan [6PM OCT 17: 26.7N 132.5E @ 130kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

29-KM. RAGGED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - its outermost part affecting and spreading across Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (heavy) along areas near and north of the center of Prapiroon (Nina).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun October 14, 2012
Class/Name: Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina)
Location of Eye: 22.6º N Lat 131.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 535 km (SE) closer to Naha Airport, Okinawa
Distance 2: 545 km (SE) closer to Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 553 km (SE) closer to Okinawa City
Distance 4: 659 km (SSE) closer to Amami Is., Ryukyus
Distance 5: 979 km (ENE) away from Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph
Present Movement: NNE @ 05 kph
Towards: Western Pacific Ocean
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 1,000 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 31 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m)

T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TY PRAPIROON (NINA)...go visit our website @:


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