Monday, October 15, 2012

Typhoon PRAPIROON (NINA) - Update #023


for Monday, 15 October 2012 [1:22 PM PhT]


Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday 15 Oct 2012
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday 15 Oct 2012

Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) has re-strengthened as it wobbles over the North Philippine Sea...currently interacting (aka. Fujiwhara Effect) with Tropical Storm Maria.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Maria (23W) has maintained its movement towards Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands and rapidly intensified. Its center was located about 526 km south-southeast of Iwo To or 677 km north-northwest of Saipan...with winds of 95 km/hr...moving north-northwest at 17 kph. Forecast to pass near Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands on Tuesday.

Residents and visitors along Okinawa and Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 12 noon today, the large eye of Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) was located over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 990 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes or 553 km south-southeast of Okinawa City, Japan...currently almost stationary during the past 6 hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 140 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 350 kilometers. These winds will remain over the open sea, not affecting any land areas. Prapiroon (Nina) is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,055 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near and south of the center of Prapiroon (Nina) is estimated to be extreme (520 mm).


Prapiroon (Nina) is expected to resume moving slowly north-northwest to north during the next 24 to 36 hours...and recurve sharply northeastward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Prapiroon (Nina) will continue to remain over the open sea, but may move closer to Okinawa on Tuesday and Wednesday as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). This typhoon may start to accelerate at a faster speed towards the sea south of Japan without any direct effects on Thursday.

This typhoon is likely to gain more strength during the next 24 hours...and may start losing strength within 48 to 72 hours.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY NOON: Moving slowly north-northwest as it intensifies...moving closer to Okinawa...about 433 km southeast of Okinawa City [12PM OCT 16: 23.4N 130.4E @ 150kph].
WEDNESDAY NOON: At its closest approach to Okinawa...recurves to the north-northeast to northeast...about 330 km east of Okinawa, Japan [12PM OCT 17: 26.3N 131.1E @ 140kph].
THURSDAY NOON: Rapidly accelerates toward the northeast away from Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands...heading for the sea south of Japan...about 527 south of Tanabe, Japan [12PM OCT 18: 29.0N 134.7E @ 120kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

LARGE RAGGED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 520 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near and south of the center of Prapiroon (Nina).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Mon October 15, 2012
Class/Name: Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina)
Location of Eye: 22.6º N Lat 131.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 535 km (SSE) closer to Naha Airport, Okinawa
Distance 2: 551 km (SSE) closer to Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 553 km (SSE) closer to Okinawa City
Distance 4: 659 km (SSE) closer to Amami Is., Ryukyus
Distance 5: 990 km (ENE) away from Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: Sea East of Okinawa
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [520 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 1,055 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 36 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m)

T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TY PRAPIROON (NINA)...go visit our website @:


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