WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (NINA) UPDATE NUMBER 030
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday 18 Oct 2012
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday 19 Oct 2012
Tropical Storm Prapiroon (Nina) zooms away past the Ryukyus...now passing to the sea south of Japan. Outer rainbands spreading across the coastal areas of Southern Japan.
Residents and visitors along the southern coastline of Japan should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 5 pm today, the center of Tropical Storm Prapiroon (Nina) was located over the open waters of the Sea south of Japan...about 523 km south of Tanabe, Japan or 843 km south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan...currently moving rapidly northeast with a forward speed of 39 km/hr.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) havd decreased to 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 290 kilometers from the center. Improving weather conditions will be expected later tonight across Ryukyus as the storm continues to move away. Prapiroon (Nina) is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,000 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near and south of the center of Prapiroon (Nina) is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).
1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Storm Prapiroon (Nina) is expected to continue moving rapidly northeast to east-northeast during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Prapiroon (Nina) will continue to move across the sea south of Japan on Friday and over the open waters of the Northwest Pacific Ocean on Saturday.
This storm will continue losing strength during the next 24 hours. The weakening of Prapiroon (Nina) in the next couple of days is due to its movement across cooler sea surface temperatures (lower heat content) and unfavorable atmospheric conditions.
The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:
FRIDAY EVENING: Accelerating rapidly east-northeastward and weakening across the open sea...about 823 km east-southsouth of Tokyo, Japan [6AM OCT 19: 32.4N 147.7E @ 65kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Sea south of Japan). Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Ryukyus, Kyushu, Shikoku and Honshu. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (light to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas near and south of the center of Prapiroon (Nina).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu October 18, 2012
Class/Name: TS Prapiroon (Nina)
Location of Center: 29.0º N Lat 135.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 523 km (S) away from Tanabe, Japan
Distance 2: 807 km (ENE) away from Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 843 km (SSW) away from Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: NE @ 39 kph
Towards: Sea South of Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 1,000 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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