WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM GAEMI (MARCE) UPDATE NUMBER 011
Issued: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 05 October 2012
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 06 October 2012
Tropical Storm GAEMI (MARCE) weakens anew as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), on its way to Vietnam. Its circulation remains slightly disorganized while over the central portion of the West Philippine-South China Sea Area.
Residents and visitors along Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia should closely monitor the development of Gaemi (Marce).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6 pm today, the center of Tropical Storm Gaemi (Marce) was located just along the western border of PAR...about 646 km west of Metro Manila or 764 km east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam and is currently moving westward with a forward speed of 17 kph in the general direction of Vietnam.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 60 kilometers from the center. These winds will remain over the open sea and will not affect any land areas. Gaemi (Marce) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Gaeme (Marce) is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Gaemi (Marce) is expected to move west to west-southwestward throughout the forecast period, with little change in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Gaemi (Marce) will be approaching the coast of Vietnam on Saturday evening...and is likely to make landfall just north of Nha Trang City in Vietnam around Sunday morning. Gaemi (Marce) is forecast to traverse the mountainous terrain of Southern Vietnam on Sunday afternoon and should be crossing Cambodia Sunday evening until Monday afternoon.
A possible slight strengthening of its wind speed is forecast during the next 24 hours before it makes landfall. Gaemi (Marce) is likely to dissipate rapidly once it crosses Vietnam and Cambodia.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
SATURDAY EVENING: Approaching the shoreline of Southeastern Vietnam...about 291 km northeast of Nha Trang, Vietnam [6PM OCT 06: 13.8N 111.4E @ 65kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Just along the Vietnamese-Cambodian Border...weakens into a Tropical Depression...about 227 km northwest of Nha Trang, Vietnam [6PM OCT 07: 13.5N 107.5E @ 55kph].
MONDAY EVENING: Dissipating along the northwestern part of Cambodia...just a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) [6PM OCT 08: 13.2N 103.4E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
WEAK INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. WEAK OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas...but is expected to reach the coastal areas of Eastern Vietnam later tonight or early Saturday. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Gaemi (Marce).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri October 05, 2012
Class/Name: Tropical Storm Gaemi (Marce)
Location of Center: 14.4º N Lat 115.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 536 km (WSW) away from Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 561 km (WSW) away from Subic Bay
Distance 3: 646 km (W) away from Metro Manila
Distance 4: 377 km (N) away from Pagasa Is., Spratlys
Distance 5: 764 km (ESE) closer to Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 6: 684 km (NE) closer to Nha Trang, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: West @ 17 kph
Towards: Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft
Possible Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM / WEATHER.COM.PH TRACKING MAP:
_____________________________________________________________________________>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS GAEMI (MARCE)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation
Copyright © 2012 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
| Reply via web post | Reply to sender | Reply to group | Start a New Topic | Messages in this topic (1) |
No comments:
Post a Comment