WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (NINA) UPDATE NUMBER 008
Issued: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Wednesday 10 Oct 2012
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wednesday 10 Oct 2012
PRAPIROON (NINA) remains a large tropical weather system with increasing wind speeds...strengthens to a category two (160 km/hr) typhoon. This typhoon remains over the North Philippine Sea, far away from land.
Meanwhile, on-and-off rains with isolated squalls (locally known as Subasko) and thunderstorms associated with the northeasterly surface windflow will continue to affect the Bicol Region and Southern Quezon including the Polillo Island Group today. This windflow is enhanced by the large Typhoon Prapiroon.
Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Okinawa and Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 12 noon today, the cloud-filled eye of Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) was located over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 896 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 948 km south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan...currently moving west-northwest with a slow forward speed of 5 km/hr.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to 160 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 280 kilometers. These winds will remain over the open sea, not affecting any land areas. Prapiroon (Nina) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Prapiroon (Nina) is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Prapiroon (Nina) is expected to continue moving slowly west-northwest to northwest during the next 24 hours with a gradual turn to the north through 48 hours. By 72 hours, Prapiroon (Nina) is forecast to make a recurvature with a steady northeast movement across the North Philippine Sea/Western Pacific Ocean. On the forecast track, the core of Prapiroon (Nina) will continue to just remain over the open sea through Saturday.
This typhoon will continue to intensify during the next 2 days as it moves over warm sea surface temperatures...and Prapiroon (Nina) could become a major typhoon (category 3) later tonight or Thursday.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
THURSDAY NOON: Moving west-northwest with a gradual turn to the north...becomes a major typhoon (category 3)...about 752 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [12PM OCT 11: 19.3N 129.3E @ 205kph].
FRIDAY NOON: Strengthens into a powerful, category 4 typhoon...recurves to the northeast while still over the North Philippine Sea...about 770 km east of Basco, Batanes [12PM OCT 12: 20.6N 129.4E @ 215kph].
SATURDAY NOON: Starts to weak as moves northeastward across the open sea...about 878 east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [12PM OCT 13: 21.4N 130.4E @ 205kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (North & Central Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Prapiroon (Nina).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Wed October 10, 2012
Class/Name: Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina)
Location of Eye: 18.4º N Lat 130.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 880 km (ENE) closer to Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 2: 896 km (E) closer to Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 3: 948 km (SSE) closer to Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 941 km (ESE) closer to Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 956 km (ENE) closer to Tuguegarao City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 05 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 890 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 32 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)
T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY PRAPIROON (NINA)...go visit our website @:
:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation
Copyright © 2012 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
|Reply via web post||Reply to sender||Reply to group||Start a New Topic||Messages in this topic (1)|