Friday, October 26, 2012

TS SON-TINH (OFEL) - Update #008


for Friday, 26 October 2012 [8:02 AM PhT]


Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday 26 Oct 2012
Next Update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday 26 Oct 2012

Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Ofel) re-organizing over the West Philippine Sea after its circulation has been affected by the terrain of Central Philippines...will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later today.

Meanwhile, this system will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring on-and-off rains, squalls, thunderstorms across Extreme Northern and Eastern Luzon. Winds will be moderate to strong not in excess of 40 km/hr. The sea waves along the coast will be rough and dangerous (8-12 feet).

Residents and visitors along Central and Northern Vietnam including Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of Son-Tinh (Ofel).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 6 am today, the center of Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Ofel) was located over the West Philippine Sea...about 422 km west-southwest of Subic Bay, Zambales or 495 km west of Metro Manila...currently moving west to west-northwest with a forward speed of 17 km/hr in the general direction of Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 85 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers from the center. Son-Tinh (Ofel) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).


Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to continue moving west-northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours with an increase in its forward speed. It will therefore maintain its track through 48 hours. Between 48 to 72 hours, Son-Tinh (Ofel) may start turning northwestward. On the forecast track, the core of Son-Tinh (Ofel) is expected to continue moving across the West Philippine Sea and will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later today. The storm should then be approaching the coast of North-Central Vietnam on Saturday morning and pass just south of Hainan Island Saturday afternoon. Son-Tinh (Ofel) shall make landfall along the shores of North-Central Vietnam on Sunday morning and move over land into Laos on Monday.

This storm is expected to slowly intensify during the next 2 days, while over the West Philippine and South China Seas...and Son-Tinh (Ofel) could become a Typhoon on Saturday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Continuing moving west-northwest across the South China Sea...approaching the coast of Central Vietnam and Southern Hainan...about 289 km east of Da Nang, Vietnam [6AM OCT 27: 16.2N 110.9E @ 100kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Attains Typhoon intensity while along the shores of North-Cental Vietnam...making landfall over the area...about 207 km north-northwest of Hue, Vietnam [6AM OCT 28: 18.0N 106.6E @ 120kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm as it dissipates over the vicinity of Laos...about 203 km west-southwest of Hanoi, Vietnam [6AM OCT 29: 20.1N 104.2E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Lubang Island, Calamian Group, Northern Palawan, and Zambales. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (light to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Son-Tinh (Ofel).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri October 26, 2012
Class/Name: TS Son-Tinh (Ofel)
Location of Center: 14.4� N Lat 116.4� E Lon
Distance 1: 415 km (WNW) away from Lubang Island
Distance 2: 422 km (WSW) away from Subic Bay
Distance 3: 400 km (WSW) away from Iba, Zambales
Distance 4: 495 km (W) away from Metro Manila
Distance 5: 486 km (WNW) away from Tagaytay City
Distance 6: 496 km (WNW) away from Puerto Galera
Distance 7: 511 km (WNW) away from Batangas City
Distance 8: 455 km (WSW) away from Dagupan City
Distance 9: 490 km (NW) away from Coron, Palawan
Distance 10: 900 km (ESE) closer to Da Nang, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 17 kph
Towards: Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 665 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)

T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS SON-TINH (OFEL)...go visit our website @:


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