Friday, October 05, 2012

TS GAEMI [MARCE] - Update #010 [New Format]


for Friday, 05 October 2012 [1:00 PM PhT]


Issued: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 05 October 2012
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 05 October 2012

Tropical Storm GAEMI (MARCE) has slightly accelerated westward over the past 6 hours...expected to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later tonight. Its outer rainbands no longer affecting Western Luzon.

Residents and visitors along Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia should closely monitor the development of Gaemi (Marce).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 12 noon today, the center of Tropical Storm Gaemi (Marce) was located over the mid-part of the West Philippine Sea...about 474 km west of Subic Bay or 842 km east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam and is currently moving west with a forward speed of 19 kph in the general direction of Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 130 kilometers from the center. These winds will remain over the open sea and will not affect any land areas. Gaemi (Marce) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Gaeme (Marce) is estimated to be heavy (350 mm).


Gaemi (Marce) is expected to continue moving westward during the next 12 to 24 hours, with little change in forward speed, but could slow down through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Gaemi (Marce) will remain over the open sea of the South China Sea approaching Vietnam on Saturday. Gaemi (Marce) is forecast to make landfall over Vietnam early Sunday...and traverse the mountainous terrain of Indochina (passing just along the boundaries of Laos, Cambodia and Thailand) late Sunday until Monday noon.

Some slight strengthening of its wind speed is forecast during the next 24 hours before it starts to decay. Gaemi (Marce) is likely to dissipate rapidly once it makes landfall over Vietnam.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY NOON: Continues to move west as it approaches the east coast of Vietnam...about 401 km southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam [12PM OCT 06: 14.6N 111.6E @ 85kph].
SUNDAY NOON: Just along the Vietnamese-Laos-Cambodian Border...weakens into a Tropical Depression...about 223 km south of Hue, Vietnam [12PM OCT 07: 14.5N 107.4E @ 55kph].
MONDAY NOON: Dissipating along the Cambodian-Thai Border...just a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) [12PM OCT 08: 14.2N 104.1E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
SCATTERED OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea) longer affecting any land areas...but is expected to reach the coastal areas of Eastern Vietnam on later tonight or early Saturday. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Gaemi (Marce).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Fri October 05, 2012
Class/Name: Tropical Storm Gaemi (Marce)
Location of Center: 14.6º N Lat 115.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 447 km (WSW) away from Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 474 km (W) away from Subic Bay
Distance 3: 509 km (WSW) away from Clark Intl. Airport
Distance 4: 559 km (W) away from Metro Manila
Distance 5: 842 km (ESE) closer to Da Nang, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: West @ 19 kph
Towards: Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 ft
Possible Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)

T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)








>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS GAEMI (MARCE)...go visit our website @:


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