Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Typhoon PRAPIROON (NINA) - Update #007

 


for Wednesday, 10 October 2012 [7:46 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON PRAPIROON (NINA) UPDATE NUMBER 007

Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wednesday 10 Oct 2012
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Wednesday 10 Oct 2012

Typhoon PRAPIROON (NINA) strengthens slightly while moving slowly west-northwest across the open waters of the North Philippine Sea.

Meanwhile, on-and-off rains with isolated squalls (locally known as Subasko) and thunderstorms associated with the northeasterly surface windflow will continue to affect the Bicol Region and Quezon Provinces including the Polillo Island Group today. This windflow is enhanced by the large Typhoon Prapiroon.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Okinawa and Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).


Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6 am today, the cloud-filled eye of Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) was located over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 939 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 973 km south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan...currently moving west-northwest with a slow forward speed of 7 km/hr.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 130 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 30 kilometers (15 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 175 kilometers. These winds will remain over the open sea, not affecting any land areas. Prapiroon (Nina) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Prapiroon (Nina) is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).


3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Prapiroon (Nina) is expected to continue moving slowly west-northwest during the next 24 hours with a gradual turn to the north to north-northeast through 48 hours. By 72 hours, Prapiroon (Nina) is forecast to complete its recurvature with a steady northeast movement across the North Philippine Sea/Western Pacific Ocean. On the forecast track, the core of Prapiroon (Nina) will just remain over the open sea through Saturday.

Continued strengthening of its wind speed is expected during the next 2 days as the system continues to move over warm sea surface temperatures...and Prapiroon (Nina) could become a category 2 typhoon on Thursday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY MORNING: Moving west-northwest with a turn to the northwest...becomes a category 2 typhoon...about 812 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [6AM OCT 11: 19.0N 129.7E @ 165kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Strengthens into a category 3 typhoon, recurves to the northeast while remaining over the North Philippine Sea...about 781 km east of Basco, Batanes [6AM OCT 12: 20.4N 129.5E @ 185kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Maintains its strength as drifts northeastward across the open sea...about 878 east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [6AM OCT 13: 21.3N 130.4E @ 185kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (North & Central Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Prapiroon (Nina).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed October 10, 2012
Class/Name: Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina)
Location of Eye: 18.3º N Lat 131.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 920 km (ENE) closer to Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 2: 939 km (E) closer to Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 3: 973 km (SSE) closer to Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 995 km (ESE) closer to Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 997 km (ENE) closer to Tuguegarao City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 130 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 07 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 890 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m)

T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)


__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/22W/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE
:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/22W/imagery/rb0-lalo.jpg

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT TRACKING CHART:


http://www.typhoon2000.ph/advisorytrax/2012/nina07.gif_____________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY PRAPIROON (NINA)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm
__________________________________________________________________________________________

<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to

2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.

Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation


Copyright © 2012 Typhoon2000.com     All Rights Reserved

__._,_.___
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)
Recent Activity:
.

__,_._,___

No comments: