Wednesday, October 17, 2012

TS PRAPIROON (NINA) - Update #027


for Wednesday, 17 October 2012 [8:04 AM PhT]


Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday 17 Oct 2012
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday 17 Oct 2012

Tropical Storm Prapiroon (Nina) continues to weaken while moving closer to Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands...expected to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early Thursday.

Tropical Storm Maria (23W) has slowed down as it moves away from Chichi Jima. Its center was located about 195 km north-northeast of Chichi Jima...with winds of 100 km/hr...moving northeast at 15 kph. Forecast to continue moving across the sea to the southeast of Japan on Thursday through Friday.

Residents and visitors along Okinawa and Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 6 am today, the center of Tropical Storm Prapiroon (Nina) was located over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 748 km northeast of Basco, Batanes or 335 km south-southeast of Naha International Airport, Okinawa...currently moving north-northwest with a forward speed of 15 km/hr.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 100 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 305 kilometers from the center. Areas around Okinawa could start to feel the effects of these tropical storm force winds later today until Thursday. Prapiroon (Nina) is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,110 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near and south of the center of Prapiroon (Nina) is estimated to be heavy (250 mm).


Tropical Storm Prapiroon (Nina) is expected to turn north slowly and recurve northeastward during the next 24 hours...with a turn to the east-northeast throughout the forecast period (72 hours). On the forecast track, the core of Prapiroon (Nina) will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early Thursday morning, as it passes just to the east of Okinawa. This storm may then start to accelerate at a faster speed towards the sea south of Japan on Friday through Saturday.

This storm will continue to weaken and decay within the next 3 days. The decay of Prapiroon (Nina) in the next couple of days is due to its movement across cooler sea surface temperatures (lower heat content) and unfavorable atmospheric conditions.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY MORNING: Recurves to the northeast while moving closer to Okinawa and the Ryukyus...exits the PAR...about 269 km east-southeast of Okinawa City [6AM OCT 18: 25.6N 130.3E @ 100kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: At its closest approach to Okinawa...recurves to the northeast...about 489 km south of Tanabe, Japan [6AM OCT 19: 29.3N 135.5E @ 85kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Rapidly accelerates toward the northeast away from Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands...heading for the sea south of Japan as it loses strength...about 572 southeast of Tokyo, Japan [6AM OCT 20: 32.0N 144.0E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Okinawa. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Ryukyu Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas near and south of the center of Prapiroon (Nina).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed October 17, 2012
Class/Name: TS Prapiroon (Nina)
Location of Center: 23.3º N Lat 128.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 335 km (SSE) closer to Naha Airport, Okinawa
Distance 2: 354 km (SSE) closer to Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 365 km (SSE) closer to Okinawa City
Distance 4: 562 km (SSW) closer to Amami Is., Ryukyus
Distance 5: 748 km (NE) away from Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph
Present Movement: NNW @ 15 kph
Towards: Sea East of Okinawa
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [250 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 1,110 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)

T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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