Friday, October 12, 2012

Typhoon PRAPIROON (NINA) - Update #014


for Friday, 12 October 2012 [1:25 PM PhT]



Issued: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Friday 12 Oct 2012
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Friday 12 Oct 2012

PRAPIROON (NINA) now a major typhoon with winds of 185 km/hr...has moved northeastward slowly during the past six hours.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Okinawa and Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 12 noon today, the ragged eye of Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) was located over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 826 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes or 764 km south-southeast of Okinawa City, Japan...currently moving northeast with a forward speed of 5 km/hr.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 185 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers. These winds will remain over the open sea, not affecting any land areas. Prapiroon (Nina) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near and south of the center of Prapiroon (Nina) is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).


Prapiroon (Nina) is expected to continue moving slowly northeastward during the next 12 to 24 hours...and this movement will continue throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Prapiroon (Nina) will continue to remain over the open sea through Monday.

This typhoon may still slightly intensify during the next 24 hours....before it starts to weaken. This weakening trend of Prapiroon (Nina) in the next couple of days is due to its movement across cooler sea surface temperatures (lower heat content) and unfavorable atmospheric environment.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY NOON: Moving slowly northeastward as it gained strength...about 876 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [12PM OCT 13: 21.0N 130.4E @ 195kph].
SUNDAY NOON: Weakens into a category 3 typhoon while moving away from the North Philippine Sea...about 627 km southeast of Okinawa, Japan [12PM OCT 14: 22.2N 131.8E @ 175kph].
MONDAY NOON: Weakens into a category 2 typhoon...continues moving northeast to NNE away from the North Philippine Sea...about 602 southeast of Okinawa, Japan [12PM OCT 15: 23.4N 132.7E @ 165kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

31-KM RAGGED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (North & Central Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas...its westernmost part starts to recede away from Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 300 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Prapiroon (Nina).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Fri October 12, 2012
Class/Name: Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina)
Location of Eye: 19.9º N Lat 128.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 823 km (ENE) away from Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 826 km (ESE) away from Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 754 km (SSE) away from Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 4: 764 km (SSE) away from Okinawa City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph
Present Movement: NE @ 05 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 890 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 43 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m)

T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TY PRAPIROON (NINA)...go visit our website @:


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