Monday, October 08, 2012

TS PRAPIROON (NINA) - Update #003


for Monday, 08 October 2012 [5:57 PM PhT]



Issued: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Monday 08 Oct 2012
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tuesday 09 Oct 2012

Tropical Storm PRAPIROON (NINA) continues to gain strength as it moves slowly WNW...enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). This system remains far away at sea and not a threat to the Philippine Islands.

Meanwhile, rains with isolated squalls (locally known as "Subasko") and thunderstorms associated with a strong northerly to northeasterly surface windflow will affect the Bicol Region (except Masbate), Eastern and Northern Luzon today.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon, Taiwan and Okinawa should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 6 pm today, the center of Tropical Storm Prapiroon (Nina) was located over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 1320 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 1172 km southeast of Okinawa, Japan and is currently moving west-northwest slowly with a forward speed of 11 km/hr.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 95 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 120 kilometers from the center. These winds will remain over the open sea for the next three days, not affecting any land areas. Prapiroon (Nina) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 780 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Prapiroon (22W) is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).


Prapiroon (Nina) is expected to resume moving on a slow westward track during the next 24 hours with a turn to the west-northwest between 36 to 48 hours. Around Day 3, Prapiroon (Nina) may start tracking very slowly to the northwest to north-northwestward across the North Philippine Sea. On the forecast track, the center of Prapiroon (Nina) will remain over the open sea through Thursday.

Continued strengthening of its wind speed is expected during the next 3 days as the system moves over warm sea surface temperatures...and Prapiroon (Nina) could become a minimal typhoon on Tuesday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY EVENING: Becomes a typhoon as it moves west-northwest slowly while over the North Philippine Sea...about 1119 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan [6PM OCT 09: 18.2N 132.8E @ 140kph].
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Strengthens to a Category 2 typhoon as it slowly moves northwesterly...about 1012 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [6PM OCT 10: 19.0N 131.8E @ 165kph].
THURSDAY EVENING: Nears Category 3 strength, turns north-northwest while still over North Philippine Sea...about 975 east-southeast of Basco, Batanes [6PM OCT 11: 19.7N 131.3E @ 175kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not yet affecting any land areas. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Prapiroon (Nina).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon October 08, 2012
Class/Name: Tropical Storm Prapiroon (Nina)
Location of Center: 18.1º N Lat 134.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 1172 km (SE) away from Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 1296 km (ENE) closer to Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 3: 1320 km (ESE) closer to Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 1359 km (ESE) closer to Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 1377 km (ENE) closer to Tuguegarao City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 11 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 780 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 feet
Possible Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)

T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)








>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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