Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Typhoon PRAPIROON (NINA) - Update #025


for Tuesday, 16 October 2012 [8:58 AM PhT]


Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday 16 Oct 2012
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday 16 Oct 2012

Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) has moved southwestward during the past 12 hours...still over the North Philippine Sea...could pass near Okinawa and Ryukyus on Wednesday or Thursday. This large typhoon continues to interact (aka. Fujiwhara Effect) with Tropical Storm Maria.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Maria (23W) has moved rapidly to the north...now passing very close to Iwo To. Its center was located about 69 km northwest of Iwo To...with winds of 95 km/hr...moving north at 33 kph. Forecast to pass near Bonin and Chichi Jima Islands this morning.

Residents and visitors along Okinawa and Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of Prapiroon (Nina).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 6 am today, the eye of Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) was located over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 856 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes or 558 km south-southeast of Okinawa City, Japan...currently moving southwest with a forward speed of 11 km/hr.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 130 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 325 kilometers. These winds will remain over the open sea, not affecting any land areas. Prapiroon (Nina) is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,055 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near and south of the center of Prapiroon (Nina) is estimated to be heavy (220 mm).


Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) is expected to turn slowly northwest to north during the next 24 to 36 hours...and recurve sharply northeastward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Prapiroon (Nina) will continue to remain over the open sea, but could move closer to Okinawa on Wednesday and Thursday...after it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Wednesday. This typhoon may start to accelerate at a slightly faster speed towards the sea south of Japan on Friday.

This typhoon is likely to gain strength during the next 24 to 24 hours...losing strength within 48 to 72 hours.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Maintains its strength as it turns northwestward...about 424 km south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan [6AM OCT 17: 22.9N 129.2E @ 130kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: At its closest approach to Okinawa...recurves to the north-northeast to northeast...about 274 km southeast of Okinawa, Japan [6AM OCT 18: 24.5N 129.4E @ 150kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Rapidly accelerates toward the northeast away from Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands...heading for the sea south of Japan...about 378 east of Okinawa, Japan [6AM OCT 19: 26.8N 131.6E @ 120kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

RAGGED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 220 mm (heavy) along areas near and south of the center of Prapiroon (Nina).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Tue October 16, 2012
Class/Name: Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina)
Location of Eye: 21.9º N Lat 130.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 532 km (SSE) closer to Naha Airport, Okinawa
Distance 2: 552 km (SSE) closer to Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 558 km (SSE) closer to Okinawa City
Distance 4: 714 km (S) closer to Amami Is., Ryukyus
Distance 5: 856 km (ENE) away from Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 130 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph
Present Movement: SW @ 11 kph
Towards: Sea East of Okinawa
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [220 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 1,055 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 38 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m)

T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)










>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:


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