Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG) now due east of Bicol...[Update #013]

for Friday, 02 October 2009 [5:03 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu October 01 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG).

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 220 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 185 kph
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr

TYPHOON PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Fri 02 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #017
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG) is now passing to the east of Bicol Region. Heavy rainbands affecting Catanduanes and Camarines Provinces.

*Residents and visitors along Northern Bicol and the rest of Luzon should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to continue moving NW quickly across the warm Philippine Sea and shall regain minimal super typhoon strength once again w/in the next 24 hours prior to landfall over Isabela or Cagayan. This afternoon PARMA will be on its closest approach to Camarines Sur, with a distance of about 275 km. from the eye. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system slowing down as it approaches the coast of Isabela and Cagayan and shall make landfall over the area on Saturday afternoon, Oct. 03. PARMA shall slowly traverse Northern Cagayan for about 24 hours and shall move out into the Balintang Channel Monday Oct 05 and may continue at a very slow pace.Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.

+ Effects: PARMA's circulation continues to move closer to the Bicol Region...its inner bands is now affecting the Bicol Region - moderate to heavy rains w/ winds not exceeding 75 kph may be expected along these areas today. Tropical Storm conditions w/ winds not exceeding 100 kph together with moderate to sometimes heavy rains can be expected along the eastern coasts of Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, & Camarines Provinces today. While, the flood-stricken areas of Central and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila will be under the typhoon's outer rainbands today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the eastern coastal areas of Bicol Region, Samar & Eastern Luzon. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Typhoon MELOR (20W) moving very slowly and threatens the Marianas. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Fri October 02 2009
Location of Eye: 14.2º N Lat 126.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 280 km (150 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 315 km (170 nm) East of Gota Beach Resort
Distance 3: 320 km (172 nm) ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 345 km (185 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 385 km (208 nm) ENE of Naga City
Distance 6: 410 km (220 nm) East of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 7: 540 km (290 nm) SE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 8: 605 km (325 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 220 kph (120 kts) near the eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 270 kph (160 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 13-18 feet [4.0-5.5 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NW @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Isabela-Cagayan Area
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
T2K TrackMap #04 (for Public): 6 PM PST Thu Oct 01
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18 GMT Thu Oct 01
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Fri Oct 02
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image new!
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: CATANDUANES, CAMARINES NORTE, NORTHERN QUEZON, AURORA, AND POLILLO IS.

The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph).

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect: CAMARINES SUR, ALBAY, SORSOGON, BURIAS IS., SOUTHERN QUEZON, RIZAL, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES, TARLAC, NUEVA ECIJA, PANGASINAN AND THE WHOLE PROVINCES OF NORTHERN LUZON incl. BABUYAN ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1 & 2 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 15.5N 125.0E / 230-280 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / NW @ 17 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 16.6N 123.5E / 240-295 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / NW @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 18.6N 121.6E / 215-260 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / NW @ 05 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 04 OCTOBER: 19.4N 120.9E / 195-240 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / WNW @ 04 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 02 OCTOBER POSITION: 14.1N 127.3E.
*TYPHOON 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AS CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG
ITS WESTERN FLANK INTERACTED WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF THE PHILIPPINE
ISLANDS. TY 19W REMAINS A VERY STRONG TYPHOON AT 120 KNOTS, BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND FROM A 011741Z
AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS. TYPHOON PARMA IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. IT
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS TRAJECTORY UP TO TAU 72. DURING THIS
PERIOD, TY 19W WILL WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
MOUNTAIN RANGE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTHERN LUZON BEFORE IT
REEMERGES IN THE LUZON STRAIT. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND PLACES THE SYSTEM IN A COL AREA. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK WITH GFS AND WBAR
STEERING THE VORTEX SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
PACK TOWARDS THE WEST. THIS FORECAST GOES WITH THE WESTWARD SOLUTION
ALBEIT AT A MUCH SLOWER PACE...(more)

>> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms). Name contributed by: Macau, China.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 14.0N 127.0E / WNW @ 19 kph / 195 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on STY PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm