Saturday, October 03, 2009

Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG) making landfall... [Update #016]

 


for Saturday, 03 October 2009 [1:36 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu October 01 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG).


PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 kph
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr

TYPHOON PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 016

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Sat 03 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #022
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG) is now making landfall over Cagayan...weakened further.

    *Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to continue moving NW for the next 24 hours across Extreme Northern Luzon as it weakens further. The core shall be off the northern coast of Ilocos Norte by tomorrow morning Oct 04.The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system recurving NE slowly and passing over the Batanes Group of Islands on Tuesday morning Oct 6. PARMA shall accelerate eastward, following the much stronger Typhoon MELOR which is heading towards Southern Japan. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.

    + Effects: PARMA's main circulation is now over Northern Luzon...Its core is now making landfall over Cagayan...Typhoon conditions of winds not exceeding 200 kph can be expected along Isabela, Isabela and Apayao...while its inner (rain) bands spreading across the whole of Northern Luzon - where stormy conditions w/ winds not exceeding 100 kph. Central Luzon will be under PARMA's outer (feeder) bands), where moderate to heavy rains w/ winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Typhoon MELOR (20W) intensifying as it approaches the northernmost part of Marianas.
    Click here to view latest T2K advisory.

    Kindly click the cool
    T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sat October 03 2009
    Location of Eye: 17.7º N Lat 122.2º E Lon
    Distance 1: 55 km (30 nm) East of Tuguegarao City
    Distance 2: 100 km (55 nm) SSE of Aparri, Cagayan
    Distance 3: 180 km (97 nm) ESE of Laoag City
    Distance 4: 300 km (160 nm) South of Basco, Batanes
    Distance 5: 365 km (197 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    165 kph (90 kts) near the eye
    Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.8-2.6 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Cagayan-Apayao
    Size (in Diameter): 610 km (330 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 32 ft (9.7 m)
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    00 GMT Fri Oct 02
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Sat Oct 03
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image new!
    NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3) click to know meaning
    Now In Effect: BATANES-CALAYAN-BABUYAN ISLANDS, CAGAYAN, ILOCOS NORTE, ABRA, APAYAO, KALINGA & NORTHERN ISABELA.

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
    Now In Effect: REST OF ISABELA, ILOCOS SUR, MT. PROVINCE, & IFUGAO.

    The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03).

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    Now In Effect: LA UNION, BENGUET, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, AURORA, NUEVA ECIJA & EASTERN PANGASINAN.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1, 2 & 3 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 18.5N 121.5E / 150-185 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / NW @ 05 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 04 OCTOBER: 18.9N 121.1E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / NW @ 05 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 05 OCTOBER: 20.1N 120.7E / 160-195 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / NE @ 05 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 06 OCTOBER: 20.9N 121.6E / 160-195 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / ENE @ 09 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 03 OCTOBER POSITION: 17.4N 122.9E.
    *THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF LUZON,
    PHILIPPINES AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS
    BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER WATER IN THE LUZON STRAIT. THE SYSTEM WILL
    SLOWLY TURN TO THE EAST FROM TAU 12 THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE STEERING
    ENVIRONMENT BECOMES WEAK. 19W WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE
    EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS AND
    INCREASES THE STEERING FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IMPROVING OVER
    THE LAST 12 HOURS, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK HAS INCREASED
    ACCORDINGLY...
    (
    more)

    >> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms)Name contributed by: Macau, China.
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    RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:  (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
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