Sunday, October 18, 2009

Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) - Update #013 [CORRECTED]

 


for Sunday, 18 October 2009 [12:08 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri October 16 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)


LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 170 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr

TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013 [Corrected*]

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Sun 18 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #017
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) drifting slightly Eastward across the Philippine Sea, in response to a passing mid-latitude low pressure (frontal system) off Japan.

    *Residents and visitors along Luzon (Northern Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to slow down further for the next 24 hours, as the influence of the mid-level low pressure trough off Japan on this system decreases. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT returning back to its Westward, as a new High Pressure Steering Ridge building off China strengthens and moves across east of Taiwan. This ridge will steer LUPIT into Extreme Northern Luzon & South China Sea from Tuesday until Friday (Oct 19-23), reaching the Category 5 treshold strength (250 kph). LUPIT shall pass very close to the coastal beach front areas of Northern Cagayan and Ilocos Norte, with a close approach of about 20 to 40 km. to the north of Pagudpod, Ilocos Norte on Thursday morning, Oct 22nd. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibility that LUPIT might do a clockwise loop* and track more WSW-ward than forecasted with a strike across Central Luzon. This scenario is likely if the high pressure steering ridge located off Eastern China strengthens more. This alternate forecast remains low at this time. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

    + Effects: LUPIT's circulation remains impressive and large, w/ a 22-km. slightly Irregular Eye. Its rain bands remains at sea and is not affecting any major islands at this time. This typhoon may begin to affect Northern Luzon - if the forecast track becomes a reality, thus deteriorating weathern conditions can be expected beginning late Monday (Oct 19) or early Tuesday (Oct 20). 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sun October 18 2009
    Location of Eye: 17.3º N Lat 133.3º E Lon
    Distance 1: 1,050 km (567 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
    Distance 2: 1,160 km (625 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
    Distance 3: 1,200 km (648 nm) ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
    Distance 4: 1,230 km (663 nm) ESE of Tuguegarao City
    Distance 5: 1,245 km (673 nm) ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
    Distance 6: 1,340 km (723 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    215 kph (115 kts) near the Eye
    Peak Wind Gusts: 260 kph (140 kts)
    Rainbands' Rain Rate: 25-50 mm/hr (1-2 in/hr) new!
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 13-18 feet [4.0-5.5 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: ENE @ 09 kph (05 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Extreme Northern Luzon
    Size (in Diameter): 905 km (490 nm) / Very Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft (7.6 m)
    T2K TrackMap #011 (for Public): 12 PM PST Sun Oct 18
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    8 AM Sun Oct 18
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Sun Oct 18
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 18 OCTOBER: 17.7N 133.2E / 220-270 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / NNW @ 07 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 19 OCTOBER: 18.4N 132.9E / 230-280 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / WNW @ 11 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 20 OCTOBER: 19.0N 129.8E / 250-305 KPH (STY-Cat 5) / W @ 17 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 21 OCTOBER: 19.1N 125.7E / 250-305 KPH (STY-Cat 5) / W @ 20 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) SUN 18 OCTOBER POSITION: 17.1N 132.8E.
    *THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY THE PASSAGE OF A MIDLATITUDE
    TROUGH TO THE NORTH. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
    ERODES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND BECOMES LESS OF AN INFLUENCE, THE
    SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL BECOMES
    MORE OF AN INFLUENCE AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS
    THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FAST MOVING TOUGH PASSES THROUGH
    THE AREA, THE RIDGE WILL VERY QUICKLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AND
    TY 22W WILL ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE WEST, A TRACK FAVORED BY THE
    MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...
    (
    more)

    >> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousnessName contributed by: Philippines.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
    > 10 AM (02 GMT) 18 OCTOBER: 17.2N 132.9E / Almost Stationary / 175 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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