Sunday, October 11, 2009

TD PARMA (PEPENG) - Update #035

 


for Sunday, 11 October 2009 [7:36 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat October 10 2009):

Ending the 6-hrly SMS updates as the system moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Continuing issuing 6-hrly web advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TD PARMA (PEPENG).


PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 60 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 035

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sun 11 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #053
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Depression PARMA (PEPENG) has accelerated and moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...threatens Hainan Island and Vietnam.

    *Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to regain Tropical Storm Status and make landfall over Hainan Island tomorrow afternoon, with forecast wind strength of 65 or 75 kph. The 2 to 4-day Long-Range Forecast shows PARMA weakening into a Tropical Depression after crossing Hainan and shall be over the Gulf of Tonkin Tuesday Oct 13. It shall make its final landfall over Vietnam as a weak TD on Wednesday Oct 14. Dissipation of this system is forecast on Thursday Oct 15 while over Laos.

    + Effects: PARMA's circulation slowly re-organizing over the South China Sea...with its low-level circulation center (LLCC) now moving slowly back to its main convection. Its outer rainbands is expected to reach Hainan Island later today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 250 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA or along mountains slopes particularly along its path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Storm NEPARTAK [21W] quasi-stationary south of Chichi Jima Island...currently located near 22.2 N lat 142.0 E Lon...about 300 km SSE of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima). With maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center. This storm is not a threat to any land areas at this time. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sun October 11 2009
    Location of Center: 17.7º N Lat 114.6º E Lon
    Distance 1: 615 km (332 nm) West of Vigan City
    Distance 2: 515 km (278 nm) South of Hong Kong
    Distance 3: 540 km (290 nm) ESE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WSW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Hainan-Vietnam Area
    Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    2 AM Sat Oct 10
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sun Oct 11
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 01
    NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 11 OCTOBER: 18.0N 113.4E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / W @ 13 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 12 OCTOBER: 18.3N 111.9E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 11 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 13 OCTOBER: 19.3N 109.4E / 55-75KPH (TD) / W @ 11 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 14 OCTOBER: 19.3N 107.0E / 45-65 KPH (TD) / W @ 13 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 11 OCTOBER POSITION: 17.9N 115.2E.
    *ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP OVER THE LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER. ALSO, EROSION PREVIOUSLY OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK, HAS SUBSIDED-
    INDICATING A RELAXATION OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 101200Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM
    HAINAN SHOWING MAXIMUM OF 15 KNOTS AT 250 MB AND BELOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE BASED ON
    DVORAK ESTIMATE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TD PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERI-
    PHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A MINIMAL
    TROPICAL STORM FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 36 BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO HAINAN. AFTER TAU 48, TD 19W
    WILL CROSS INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN THEN MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM AND DISSIPATE.
    THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE...
    (
    more)

    >> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms)Name contributed by: Macau, China.
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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