Friday, October 16, 2009

TS LUPIT (22W) to enter PAR after sunset today... [Update #007]

 


for Friday, 16 October 2009 [11:50 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri October 16 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS LUPIT (PRE-RAMIL)


LUPIT (PRE-RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 kph

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [PRE-RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Fri 16 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #009
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm LUPIT (Pre-RAMIL) becoming a Typhoon as it continues to strengthen...will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight.

    *Residents and visitors along Northern & Central Luzon should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (Pre-RAMIL).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to reach Typhoon strength later today and slow its forward motion after entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tonight or early tomorrow morning - executing a slow NW, stair-step track. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast has changed slightly, showing LUPIT resuming its WNW or Westward track as a new High Pressure Steering Ridge off Taiwan develops, driving LUPIT towards Extreme Northern Luzon between Monday to Wednesday (Oct 19-21). *Initial Impact Forecast (IIF): LUPIT shall make landfall over Cagayan on Wednesday evening, Oct 21 and exit thru Ilocos Provinces early Thursday morning (Oct 21) - a track similar to the recent Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG). This scenario was taken from the latest forecast run of ECMF (European Guidance Model), which is the most reliable forecast tool this season. Please be reminded that the ECMWF model run changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

    + Effects: LUPIT's circulation continues to improve as it consolidates. Its southern outer feeder bands still spreading across Ulithi and Yap Islands - where squall conditions and thunderstorms can be expected today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date:12:00 PM PST Fri October 16 2009
    Location of Center: 13.4º N Lat 136.1º E Lon
    Distance 1: 120 km (65 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 2: 485 km (262 nm) NNW of Yap, FSM
    Distance 3: 1,265 km (683 nm) East of Catanduanes, PH
    Distance 4: 1,395 km (753 nm) East of Metro Naga/CWC
    Distance 5: 1,625 km (878 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    110 kph (60 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 30 kph (16 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Philippine Sea
    Size (in Diameter): 630 km (340 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
    T2K TrackMap #005 (for Public): 12 PM PST Fri Oct 16
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    8 AM Fri Oct 16
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Fri Oct 16
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 16 OCTOBER: 13.7N 134.9E / 130-160 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WNW @ 13 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 17 OCTOBER: 14.3N 133.5E / 150-185 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WNW @ 09 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 18 OCTOBER: 15.5N 131.8E / 185-230 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / WNW @ 09 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 19 OCTOBER: 16.3N 129.9E / 205-250 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / WNW @ 11 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) FRI 16 OCTOBER POSITION: 13.2N 137.3E.
    *TROPICAL STORM (TS) LUPIT HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED TO ITS
    CURRENT STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER
    THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE BANDS
    OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS VERY GOOD RADIAL
    OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING OVERALL SYMMETRY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS
    A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST A
    FEW DEGREES TO THE NORTH. THESE DYNAMICS ARE SUPPRESSING VERTICAL
    WIND SHEAR AND CONTRIBUTING TO THE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE
    STORM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
    (4.0), RJTD (3.5) AND KNES (T3.5)...
    (
    more)

    >> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousnessName contributed by: Philippines.
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    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS LUPIT (22W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
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