Friday, October 09, 2009

TD PARMA (PEPENG) reaches the South China Sea... [Update #031]

 


for Friday, 09 October 2009 [6:03 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue October 06 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly SMS, web & e-mail advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TD PARMA (PEPENG).


PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 60 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 031

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Fri 09 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC TC FIX
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Depression PARMA (PEPENG) now off the coast of Ilocos Sur...moving westward into the South China Sea...Rains to continue across Western Luzon.

    *Residents and visitors along Western Luzon should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to accelerate West to WNW-ward across the South China Sea and exit PAR tomorrow. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows PARMA accelerating WNW, regaining back to TS status. PARMA is forecast to make landfall over the southern part of Hainan Island early Tuesday Oct 13, with forecast wind velocity of 75 kph.

    + Effects: PARMA's circulation still covers half of Luzon (Wester portion)...Widespread rains from La Union down to Bataan can still be expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA or along mountains slopes particularly along its path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Extratropical Storm MELOR (QUEDAN) now south of Kuril Islands.
    Click here to view the final T2K advisory.

    (2) Strong Tropical Disturbance 92W [LPA] has become Tropical Depression 21W (NONAME)...moving Northeast, following the path of MELOR (QUEDAN). Watch for the separate page on this system today. Kindly click the cool
    T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Fri October 09 2009
    Location of Center: 17.2º N Lat 120.1º E Lon
    Distance 1: 55 km (30 nm) SSW of Vigan City
    Distance 2: 70 km (38 nm) NNW of San Fernando City
    Distance 3: 105 km (57 nm) NW of Baguio City
    Distance 4: 125 km (67 nm) SSW of Laoag City
    Distance 5: 135 km (73 nm) NNW of Dagupan City
    Distance 6: 310 km (157 nm) NNW of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: West @ 17 kph (09 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: South China Sea
    Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
    T2K TrackMap #019 (for Public): 6 AM PST Fri Oct 09
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    2 AM Fri Oct 9
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 AM Fri Oct 9
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image
    NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    In Effect: CAGAYAN, ISABELA, ILOCOS PROVINCES, APAYAO, ABRA, KALINGA, IFUGAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, BENGUET, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, AURORA, NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES, BATAAN & BULACAN.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 09 OCTOBER: 17.1N 119.1E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / W @ 09 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 10 OCTOBER: 17.3N 118.1E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / WNW @ 09 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 11 OCTOBER: 17.9N 115.9E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 11 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 12 OCTOBER: 18.5N 113.3E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / W @ 15 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 09 OCTOBER POSITION: 17.1N 120.1E.
    *RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP POCKETS OF CONVECTION PULSING OVER THE LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE LOST MOST OF ITS BANDING AND ORGANIZATION
    AS IT PASSED OVER THE ISLAND OF LUZON IN THE LAST 12 HOURS, BUT HAS MAINTAINED A GOOD SOUTHWESTWARD
    OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 081747Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWS AN LLCC THAT HAS JUST MOVED BACK OVER WATER WITH DEEP
    CONVECTION CONSTRAINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE STEERING INFLUENCES IN THE REGION CONTINUE TO
    BECOME MORE DEFINED, AND THE SYSTEM MOVING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, IT IS EXPECTED TO
    SLOWLY REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 24. OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN GOOD TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND
    SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER
    AGREEMENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, AND THE CURRENT TRACK HAS GOOD CONFIDENCE...
    (
    more)

    >> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms)Name contributed by: Macau, China.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
    > 4 AM (20 GMT) 09 OCTOBER: 17.2N 120.4E / West Slowly / 55 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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