Friday, October 30, 2009

Typhoon MIRINAE (SANTI) - Update #013

 


for Friday, 30 October 2009 [5:27 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 28 2009):

Now issuing 3-hrly Web, SMS & E-mail Advisories on TY MIRINAE (SANTI).


MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph

TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Fri 30 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #016
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Typhoon MIRINAE (SANTI) continues on its WSW track and is now moving closer to Northern Bicol and Polillo Islands.

    *Residents and visitors along the Bicol Region, Eastern, Southern and Central Luzon should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE is expected to resume its Westward track and maintain its strength, passing close to the coastal areas of Northern Bicol or about 150 km. North of Naga City around 10 PM tonight. Its Core (Eye & Eyewall) will pass very close to Polillo Islands early tomorrow morning (2 AM Sat) and make landfall over Northern Quezon, just north of Infanta around 7 AM...then will cross Bulacan and Pampanga (Clark Air Base) around 8 or 9 AM or about 55 km. North of the City of Manila. Around noontime tomorrow, MIRINAE will be moving into the mountain ranges of Zambales and exit towards the South China Sea in the afternoon (Sat). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system approaching the coast of Vietnam as a downgraded Tropical Storm due to increase wind shear over the area on Nov 1 through Nov 2...and then will make landfall over Vietnam and dissipate over Cambodia on Tuesday, Nov 03. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects: MIRINAE's convective circulation has regain rain cloud convection as it moves closer to Eastern Luzon. The EYE remains cloud-filled w/ its outer rainbands now spreading across the Bicol Region. Rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected across the Bicol Region, deteriorating later today as the typhoon approaches. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 02 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Northern Visayas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Fri October 30 2009
    Location of Eye: 15.2º N Lat 126.7º E Lon
    Distance 1: 315 km (170 nm) NE of Virac, Catanduanes
    Distance 2: 350 km (190 nm) NE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
    Distance 3: 390 km (210 nm) NE of Legazpi City
    Distance 4: 415 km (225 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
    Distance 5: 425 km (230 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam.Norte
    Distance 6: 505 km (273 nm) ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
    Distance 7: 540 km (292 nm) ENE of Infanta, Quezon
    Distance 8: 550 km (297 nm) ESE of Baler, Aurora
    Distance 9: 605 km (327 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    165 kph (90 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (105 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WSW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Polillo-Northern Quezon
    Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 29 ft (8.8 m)
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    2 AM Fri Oct 30
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Fri Oct 30
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3) click to know meaning
    Now In Effect: POLILLO ISLANDS.

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
    Now In Effect: METRO MANILA, CATANDUANES, CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, QUEZON, LUBANG IS., BATANGAS, LAGUNA, CAVITE, RIZAL, BATAAN, PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES, TARLAC, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, QUIRINO, AND AURORA.

    The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    Now In Effect: ISABELA, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, BENGUET, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, ALBAY, BURIAS IS., SORSOGON, MARINDUQUE, ORIENTAL MINDORO, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, AND CALAMIAN GROUP.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 30 OCTOBER: 15.4N 126.7E / 165-205 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 22 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 31 OCTOBER: 15.3N 124.2E / 165-205 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 22 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 01 NOVEMBER: 15.4N 119.3E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 28 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 02 NOVEMBER: 14.7N 111.9E / 110-140 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 24 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) FRI 30 OCTOBER POSITION: 15.2N 127.9E.
    *ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
    MAINTAINED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN WHICH HAS MADE
    POSITIONING USING INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY DIFFICULT. HOWEVER, A
    291719Z AMSU IMAGE GIVES GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT POSITION.
    THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM
    PGTW AND RJTD. MIRINAE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
    SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO
    WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES LUZON, THOUGH IT WILL NOT SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY IN
    FORWARD TRACK SPEED. ONCE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THE SYSTEM WILL
    STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL
    WIND SHEAR. BY TAU 72, MIRINAE WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AND
    WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS AN EARLY-SEASON COLD SURGE
    FURTHER INCREASES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
    VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO...
    (
    more)

    >> MIRINAE, meaning: Milky WayName contributed by: Korea.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
    > 4 AM (20 GMT) 30 OCTOBER: 15.6N 127.2E / WSW @ 22 kph / 150 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!! 


    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=TWENTYTHRE)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY MIRINAE (SANTI)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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