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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 28 2009):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, sms & email advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY MIRINAE (SANTI).
MIRINAE (SANTI/23W/0921) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 kph
TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
11:00 PM PST (15:00 GMT) Wed 28 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #011
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
*Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook remains the same...expected to continue tracking Westward within the next 1-2 days. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Friday evening, Oct 30 as a Category 3 Typhoon (195 kph), passing more or less 300 km. North of Camarines Sur. The core shall make landfall just north of Casiguran, Aurora Saturday morning Oct 31 and cross Northern Aurora, Southern Isabela, Quirino, Benguet, La Union and exit thru Lingayen Gulf-Cape Bolinao Area in Northern Pangasinan on Sunday morning, Nov 1st. MIRINAE will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Monday, November 02. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing north of Camarines Norte and traversing Polillo Islands and making landfall over Northern Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Zambales beginning Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning (Oct 31-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: MIRINAE maintains an average, with the appearance of a an cloud-filled EYE. Its rainbands remains at sea and not yet affecting any major islands. The initial effects of its outer rainbands over Eastern Luzon can be expected beginning Friday, Oct 30. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 80 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 11:00 PM PST Wed October 28 2009
Location of Eye: 16.4º N Lat 134.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,160 km (133 nm) ENE of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 1,355 km (765 nm) East of Aurora
Distance 3: 1,620 km (875 nm) East of Aurora
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph (90 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 150 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 958 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 26 kph (15 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: S.Isabela-N.
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft (7.0 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 PM PST Wed Oct 28
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Thu Oct 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 PM Thu Oct 28
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
8 AM (00 GMT) 29 OCTOBER: 16.5N 132.3E / 165-205 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 26 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 30 OCTOBER: 16.4N 124.3E / 195-240 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / W @ 20 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 31 OCTOBER: 16.4N 119.9E / 150-185 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 22 KPH
REMARKS: 8 PM (12 GMT) WED 28 OCTOBER POSITION: 16.3N 135.4E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
>> MIRINAE, meaning: Milky Way. Name contributed by: Korea.
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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